Belief key to World Cup glory
To win the World Cup you have to believe you can and there are only three teams who do, writes
So who wins the Rugby World Cup? Two years ago at an embassy function in Japan I was called upon for a prediction for the 2019 RWC. At the time, based on gut instinct (or bias) I indicated a New Zealand v South Africa final with Wales as the dark horses, New Zealand to win.
The one concern was that our greatest challenge would be the selection process – ensuring competition for places rather than sticking with players who have plateaued, as happened in the 1991 campaign.
Let’s take a look at the history and see what the ‘numbers’ tell us.
Question: Prior to the World Rugby ranking system, what does history tell us about performance pre-World Cup and outcomes in the World Cup.
Answer: On no occasion does the pre-tournament favourite win.
The official World Rugby rankings have had New Zealand, Wales and Ireland in recent weeks at No 1, despite Wales having not beaten New Zealand since 1953.
The ranking system has only been in place for the last four tournaments. The No 1-ranked team has won three of those four tournaments, the only aberration being 2007 but we won’t go there.
To summarise RWC history, there is a 37 per cent success rate for the pre-tournament favourite. Perhaps the world ranking system is more accurate than it is given credit for.
History also shows that teams knocked out of the preceding tournament at the quarterfinal stage are more likely to win the next tournament. The pain of previous failure is a big contributor to likely success in the future as lessons are learnt. Think Wales, Ireland, Scotland in this instance but also consider how motivated England will be given that they were discarded before the quarterfinals in their own tournament in 2015.
Further to the above, seven of eight World Cups have been won by the southern hemisphere. However, the Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship winner has never won the World Cup.
That is the reality of professional sportsmen – they need to embrace the uncertainty and walk towards the pressure.
To win you have to first of all believe you can.
How many teams believe ‘bone deep’ as the All Blacks do that they can win the World Cup. This is the challenge for Ireland, who have never advanced beyond the quarterfinals, and Wales, who may need somebody else to beat New Zealand.
If you are looking for an example of ‘bone deep’ expectations, look no further than the return Bledisloe fixture at Eden Park this year. We have made the selection adjustments and introduced a vibrancy to the group.
England have the ingredients. South Africa definitely believe, having beaten and drawn with New Zealand in New Zealand in their last two encounters.
Which brings us to the opening round for the two nominated favourites, New Zealand and South Africa.
Consider that they will both be aware that not only has the Rugby Championship winner never won the RWC but neither has the ultimate RWC winner ever lost a pool game.
A conundrum for South Africa.
All this before we discuss the weather, the role of luck and dare I say it: adjudication. Can’t wait for kickoff.
Oh, and I will stick with that prediction from two years ago – All Blacks to beat South Africa in the final.
Former Wallabies and Crusaders coach Robbie Deans will write a weekly column for Stuff during the duration of the Rugby World Cup.