Tourism hotspot will get over Covid
The tourism-reliant Mackenzie District is expected to bounce back from Covid-19 in the next five years with peak day visitor numbers more than tripling by 2050.
Within 30 years the district’s population will jump from 4950 to 9050, dwellings 3872 to 6120, jobs 1876 to 4618, and peak day visitors 17,378 to 61,253, according to a growth projections report commissioned by the Mackenzie District Council.
However, the report forecasts Tekapo and Twizel to hit housing capacity in that time if development rates continue under the council’s existing planning provisions.
‘‘What the projections really spell out is that we need to take a good look at how we zone our land for growth,’’ district mayor Graham Smith said.
‘‘We’re doing a lot of work in this space with a spatial planning project already underway for Fairlie, Tekapo and Twizel which will inform a complete review of our District Plan.’’
Smith said the district had ‘‘no doubt’’ been impacted by the pandemic, but was ‘‘in a better place’’ than other tourism hotspots.
‘‘We’ve only got so much capacity for tourism, so what we’ve been seeing is a massive resurgence of domestic visitors as Kiwis rediscover what makes the Mackenzie District so special.’’
The growth projections report says understanding a district’s growth was an ‘‘extremely important component’’ of planning for its future.
‘‘These . . . will be used to inform a wide range of key projects, plans and strategies.’’
Projections were based on the assumption a trans-Tasman bubble would be established by April 2021, after which the country’s borders would open by January 2022.
The council had previously used Statistics New Zealand’s growth projections, but the district had ‘‘far exceeded even the most ambitious predictions’’ since 2013.
‘‘This has been driven by growth in the tourism industry, which has attracted both visitors and residents.’’
While tourism had been ‘‘significantly affected’’ by the pandemic forcing the country’s borders closed and its residents into lockdown, the domestic tourism market was ‘‘reinvigorated’’ when restrictions eased.
The report raises questions about why on peak days, which were typically New Years Day for Twizel and the Mackenzie Lakes and Easter Weekend for Fairlie and Lake Opuha, there were 88 per cent more day trippers than those staying the night.
‘‘Is it due to accommodation constraints, or a behavioural choice?’’
The report also says of those who lost their jobs to Covid-19, 50 per cent in Tekapo and 25 per cent in Twizel were projected to leave the district.
‘‘These losses are expected to have recovered by 2025.’’
The district’s population was typically made up of young people working in tourism and those near the end of their working lives or in early retirement who move to the area for the lifestyle.
Over 70s tended to leave the area for better healthcare.