Mission improbable: How to beat Peru
To qualify for the World Cup finals, the All Whites must find a way to get past the world’s best team. Ben Strang analyses how New Zealand, ranked can beat Peru.
Football, in theory, is a simple game – score more goals than your opponent, and you head home with a smile on your face. If only it were that easy. When the All Whites face off with Peru on November 11 in Wellington, and five days later in Lima, it will be David v Goliath.
It’s not an impossible task for New Zealand to shock the Peruvians, but should they achieve it, their feat would go down as one of the biggest shocks in football history.
Ranked 122nd in the world heading into the game, according to Fifa, New Zealand need to overcome the 10th best side.
No team in the history of Fifa’s rankings has overcome such a difference in ranking position, so New Zealand’s task is a monumental one.
Here’s how coach Anthony Hudson could look to beat one of the world’s finest teams.
Stretch the field
On attack, Hudson needs to find a way to stretch the field as wide as he can, pulling the Peruvian defence apart.
Peru’s back four defend extremely narrow, leaving little space to attack them head-on. It’s when you switch the play and tug them from one side of the field to the other that gaps appear.
Of the 27 goals Peru conceded in Conmebol qualifying, eight came when switching the ball from the left flank to the right, and attacking the channel between left back and centre back.
With the left back, likely to be Miguel Trauco, defending almost in line with the far post when the ball is on the far flank, he is forced to make up ground when play is switched from left to right, as is the central defender alongside him.
Attack the right flank
There are two issues with this plan. One, the All Whites don’t usually have wide men on attack. They play narrow, with only the wing-backs providing width.
The second is that Peru’s coach Ricardo Gareca seems to have noticed the weakness on the left of his defence.
At the start of qualifying, midfielder Yoshimar Yotun was starting at left back, alongside Carlos Ascues at centreback. Peru conceded 12 goals during qualifying through that channel between the two defenders.
But with Trauco moved into left back, alongside either Christian Ramos or Alberto Rodriguez, the hole has closed somewhat. Peru are less leaky on the left side of defence.
It’s still there, but it’s a tighter squeeze than it was two years ago.
Set-piece dominance
Peru conceded 10 goals from set pieces in qualifying. Four of those goals came from corners, and all four of those goals were scored at the far post.
Basically, get your movement inside the box right and Peru are susceptible to leaving a player unmarked at the far post.
They allowed a pair of penalties, one of which was conceded when running through the previously mentioned left back/centreback pairing. As with corners, freekicks from anywhere within 40 metres of goal can be an attacking opportunity.
The central defensive pairing aren’t all that tall, so Chris Wood, Winston Reid and co could profit if the delivery is good.
Assured in possession
This is specifically when the All Whites have the ball inside their own half. Peru aren’t going to pass New Zealand to death. Had they drawn Chile, or Argentina, that could have been the case, but New Zealand have caught a break with Peru in that regard.
In Conmebol qualifying, Peru scored 24 goals. Sixteen of those goals came when they won the ball inside the opposition half, and 11 goals were scored on the counterattack.
Incredibly, the most passes Peru strung together before a goal in qualifying was six. Yes, just six.
In fact, 17 of their goals came with two or fewer passes leading into the finish. On average, they made 1.75 passes before scoring in their attacking movements. This is a team which looks to win the ball high up the pitch, then hit you before you can reorganise your defence. New Zealand need to be assured with the ball in their own half, or risk being hit hard for their mistakes.
Man-mark Andre Carrillo
The Watford winger has pace, silky smooth footwork, and a big engine.
Now, imagine him running at someone like Tommy Smith, Deklan Wynne or Tom Doyle.
Peru have other attacking threats, such as Edison Flores and Christian Cueva. You can’t neglect any of them.
But Carrillo has that something extra that should concern the All Whites.
Someone should be tasked with shutting him down throughout the game, either by shutting off any service to him on the flank, or by shadowing him all afternoon.
Change formation
Taking into account how Peru score their goals, and the best way to break them down, Hudson can’t send out a five-man back-line.
New Zealand need wide men to stretch Peru’s defence, and that means something resembling a 4-3-3 formation.
It’s more likely that we see a 5-3-2 formation (Hudson may call it a 3-5-2), but that would be a mistake. The wide men need to be high up the field on attack, higher than a wingback is comfortable.
As mentioned, Peru are unlikely to pass their way through the All Whites. It’s not their game.
Hudson needs Marco Rojas and Kosta Barbarouses on the wings, attacking Peruvian fullbacks and supplying Chris Wood with quality crosses.
He then needs to stack the midfield with all the quality he can muster. Ryan Thomas and one other (Bill Tuiloma, perhaps) as holding midfielders, with Michael McGlinchey sitting in front of them would be ideal.
On defence, the formation would be more like a 4-5-1. On attack, more like a 4-2-3-1. Insure yourself against Peruvian counterattacks while giving yourself a chance of stealing a goal or two.
Hope for the best
At the end of all that, you need some luck in the final third. Chris Wood needs to be fit and firing, balls need to bounce New Zealand’s way, and to be frank, Peru need to have an off day.
It happens in football from time to time. If it all clicks, the All Whites could cause a huge upset.