National, Act could govern: Poll
Labour at lowest since 2017 in new political survey
National and Act could form a Government between them and Labour is at its lowest since 2017, according to the latest political poll. The 1 News-Kantar Poll also registers for the first time a party with links to the occupation at Parliament.
Benefiting from the falls for the two major parties is Act, which is up four points to 11 per cent. That brings the right bloc to 48 per cent and 62 seats — enough to form a Government.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National Party leader Christopher Luxon have also dropped in popularity, each down three points to 30 and 22 per cent respectively, in the poll.
National has the largest party share at 37 per cent, down from 39 per cent at the last such poll run over May 21 to 25. Last night’s poll was conducted July 30 to August 3.
Recent co-leadership issues in the Greens do not appear to have hurt the party too much — it dropped just one point to 9 per cent. Te Pāti Māori is steady on 2 per cent.
Among the parties outside Parliament, NZ First is up two points to 3 per cent and the Opportunities Party remains steady on 2 per cent.
The poll also has the first appearance, at 1 per cent, of Vision NZ.
The party is led by Hannah Tamaki, the wife of Brian Tamaki — who founded Destiny Church and the Freedom and Rights Coalition, one of
the key groups involved in the recent occupation at Parliament.
The New Conservative party, which also has links to the occupation and wider anti-government protest movement, remains on 1 per cent.
Democrats for Social Credit round out the numbers also on 1 per cent.
Among preferred Prime Minister candidates, Act leader David Seymour is up two points to 5 per cent, NZ First leader Winston Peters is up one point to 2 per cent and Green MP Chlo¨e Swarbrick is down one point to 1 per cent.
The poll had a sample size of 1023 eligible voters, about half polled via cellphone and half online, giving a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.
More recent polls have shown National edging past Labour and forming a slight majority alongside traditional coalition partner Act. Luxon has also edged up in the leader stakes over the first half of the year, but Ardern has retained a solid lead.
However, it has been a turbulent few months politically since the last 1 News-Kantar poll at the end of May.
Issues since then have included
Luxon’s mixed messages over the right of women to a safe abortion after the United States overturned the constitutional right there.
More recently his comments about the business sector and lack of clarity over National’s tax policies have also come under scrutiny.
Ardern, meanwhile, is coming off the back of several overseas trips, including getting the European Union Free Trade deal over the line and making ground on key issues including 501 deportations in Australia.
At the May 1 News-Kantar poll ,
National was steady on 39 per cent and Labour dropped two points to 35 per cent.
The Green Party was up one point to 10 per cent, Act down one to 7 per cent and Te Pāti Māori steady on 2 per cent.
On those results, National and Act would get 60 seats — exactly half the 120 seats in Parliament.
Labour would get 45 seats, the Greens 13 and Te Pā ti Mā ori two. This situation, provided Te Pāti Māori did not side with National and Act, could see a hung Parliament.