REVOLUTION

The Climate Change Commission has outlined the bold steps NZ needs to take to hit ambitious greenhouse gas targets, including getting most Kiwis into electric vehicles (EVs).

Recommendations

• BEnding imports of petrol and diesel cars by 2032

• Slashing livestock numbers by 15% by 2030

• Planting 380,000 hectares of new exotic forestry by 2035

New Zealand would need to slash cow numbers, stop conventional car imports, decarbonise the energy sector and get most Kiwis into electric vehicles — all within 14 years — to hit ambitious greenhouse gas targets.

A long-awaited emissions analysis — arguably the most important yet — warns we are on track to fall millions of tonnes short of hitting targets under climate-change policies.

Also among the bold steps the recently formed Climate Change Commission laid out in its just-issued draft advice was an end to coal heating, more forestry, greener homes and a waste-stripping “circular” economy. Specifically, it meant:

● Winding down imports of fossilfuel light vehicles with internal combustion engines — or conventional cars — by 2032.

● Slashing livestock numbers by about 15 per cent by 2030.

● Planting 380,000 hectares of new exotic forestry by 2035.

● Cutting all greenhouse gas emissions by 36 per cent — or from an annual average 69.2 megatonnes (Mt) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) of long-lived gases in 2018 to 44.6Mt — by 2035.

● Reducing gross carbon dioxide. This would need to fall 35.1 Mt CO2e in 2018 to 22.2 Mt CO2e in 2035 — a 36.8 per cent reduction.

● Bringing down biogenic methane by 1.32Mt CH4 (methane) in 2018 to 1.11 Mt, a near-16 per cent reduction, by 2035.

The commission was tasked by the Government to find if New Zealand’s climate commitments were compatible with global efforts to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Its answer was no — and that New Zealand could no longer rely on its forests to offset emissions.

The good news was the “transformational and lasting” change needed could be made right now with existing technology — and at relatively little cost to the economy.

Its analysis found that meeting the emissions budgets it proposed out to 2035 were likely to be less than 1 per cent of GDP — much lower than what was estimated when new 2050 targets were set.

Some sectors would feel more pain than others.

The coal mining and oil and gas industries, particularly, would lose up to 1100 jobs by 2035.

But the commission found many workers in those energy industries most affected by the transformation had important skills that would prove valuable in other work.

“We expect employment will rise in the circular economy, development of biofuels and hydrogen, and in deploying and supporting new technologies.”

In 2018, New Zealand’s gross greenhouse emissions included 45.5 megatonnes Mt CO2-e of long-lived

Some sectors would feel more pain than others. The coal mining and oil and gas industries, particularly, would lose up to 1100 jobs by 2035.

gases — and 1.34 Mt CH4 of biogenic methane.

Under existing policy, New Zealand would fall short of its 2050 target of net-zero long-lived gases by 6.3Mt of CO2-e.

Biogenic methane — largely stemming from livestock and responsible for a third of our greenhouse gas emissions — would also come down only 12 per cent below 2017 levels.

That was well beneath the Zero Carbon Act’s targeted reduction range of 24 to 47 per cent.

Forests that sequester an average 6.5 Mt CO2e per year would need to be pulling nearly double that by 2035 — at 13.6 Mt CO2e.

Nitrous oxide levels would need to fall from 7.7 Mt CO2e in 2018 to 6.6 Mt CO2e — a 14 per cent reduction.

Fluorinated greenhouse gases, from refrigeration and air conditioning systems, would need to fall 29.7 per cent from 2018’s levels of 1.9 Mt CO2-e.

Importantly, the report set out what specific cuts would be required across each sector, by 2035.

Particularly, the 1.2Mt CH4 of biogenic methane and 8.3Mt CO2-e of long-lived gases emitted by agriculture would need to fall by 0.97 Mt CH4 and 6.9 Mt CO2-e respectively.

Waste methane emissions, mostly stemming from landfills, would need to be cut from 0.14 Mt CH4 to 0.12 Mt CH4, and fluorinated greenhouse gases, from refrigeration and air conditioning systems, would have to fall from 1.8 Mt to 1.2 CO2-e.

Transport emissions, which account for a third of our long-lived emissions — and mainly through the petrol and diesel our cars, SUVs and trucks use — would have to fall from 16.6Mt of CO2-e to 8.8 6Mt of CO2-e.

The other big chunk of our emissions pie — those created through power generation, manufacturing, producing oil and gas, and heating our homes and offices — would have to be pushed down from 18.8Mt to 10.4 Mt of CO2-e.

More trees were also a vital part of the mix.

While forestry pulled about 9.5Mt of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere today — our emissions would be 14 per cent higher without it — that

total needed to be racheted up to 15.5 Mt.

Based on estimates, there was between 1.1 and 1.4 million hectares of marginal land available to be planted as new forestry — albeit much of it steep and erosion-prone — the commission’s path assumed exotic afforestation would ramp up to 25,000ha per year from 2030.

Ultimately, the commission’s ambitious path stood to bring down net long-lived gases by 17 per cent by 2030 — and 36 per cent by 2035 — compared to 2018 levels.

The cuts would mostly come from road transport and heat, industry and power.

To force down methane levels, the commission’s path didn’t rely on future technology such as inhibitors, but changes in farm practices and action in landfills.

Dairy and sheep and beef animal numbers would need to be brought down about 15 per cent by 2030, compared with an eight to 10 per cent reduction under current policies.

The transport network would need to be “almost completely” decarbonised — with no further internal combustion engine light vehicles imported after 2032.

That would mean more than half of all light vehicle travel would be in electric vehicles by 2035 — while 40 per cent of the light vehicle fleet would be electric.

Of truck imports in 2030, 15 per cent of medium ones and 8 per cent of heavy ones would need to be electric, but this must rise to 84 per cent and 69 per cent by 2035.

The commission found that electrifying light passenger vehicles would require significant expansion in electricity generation capacity.

Building new infrastructure this decade could avoid a bottleneck in the next — all while coal-fired generation at Huntly closed some point in the 2020s, and the New Zealand Aluminium Smelter at Tiwai Point was finally shut in 2026.

“From 2030 onwards, the rate of afforestation for carbon removals would reduce,” the report said.

“In total, around 380,000 hectares of new exotic forestry would be established by 2035.”

Commission chair Dr Rod Carr said the advice was “ambitious but realistic” — and made a clear case to Government for taking immediate and decisive action.

“As a country we need transformational and lasting change to meet our targets and ensure a thriving Aotearoa for future generations.

“The good news is that our analysis shows there are technically achievable, economically affordable and socially acceptable paths for Aotearoa to take,” he says.

“But the Government must move faster — and support business, agriculture and community to do the same.”

Wetlands are also among the most powerful landscapes on the planet when it comes to storing carbon.

Yesterday, the Climate Change Commission/He Pou a Rangi released its first package of advice on what New Zealand needs to do to become carbon neutral. This advice comes as the frequency of natural disasters worldwide has doubled over the last 35 years, and about 90 per cent of those disasters are water-related.

Nearly 50 per cent of lives lost in natural disasters are from weather and climate-related events.

The human cost of climate change is enormous.

It’s serendipitous that tomorrow happens to be International World Wetlands Day, because healthy living wetlands are nature’s secret weapon for protecting us from deadly climate change events.

Wetlands are like a sponge for the landscape, reducing the effects of floods and droughts by holding and slowing water excess water from heavy rains.

When things are dry, wetlands release water slowly to keep connected streams, lakes, and rivers flowing.

Coastal wetlands and estuaries provide effective physical barriers, protecting the coasts with the gravel, sand, and soil that they have slowly built up over time. They naturally hold back sea level rise, storm surges, and even tsunamis.

When the Boxing Day tsunami swept South East Asia in 2004, it became one of the deadliest natural disasters in history.

One year later, a report from the International Union for Conservation of Nature noted the dense mangrove wetlands in some areas of Sri Lanka had saved lives by slowing the advancing water. Living mangroves had acted as a natural barrier to the giant waves.

All this, and wetlands are habitats for a wealth of native animals like whitebait and eels. Healthy wetlands increase the abundance of fish and provide a feeding ground for wading birds.

Intact natural wetlands are our most sustainable, cost-effective, and ecologically sound climate adaptation solutions. They can literally save lives.

Wetlands are also among the most powerful landscapes on the planet when it comes to storing carbon.

Coastal wetlands, like mangroves, salt marshes, and sea grasses, can sequester carbon up to 60 times faster than tropical forests. Peat wetlands occupy only 3 per cent of the Earth’s surface but hold twice as much carbon as all forests combined.

Wet peatlands sequester carbon and drained peat wetlands leak carbon. Here in Aotearoa, 6 per cent of our agricultural emissions come from decaying peat currently being used for grazing.

For the first time the EU got more electricity from renewables than fossil fuels in 2020.

Unfortunately, 90 per cent of New

Zealand’s wetlands have been destroyed. But this gives us an enormous opportunity to protect people and the climate by restoring what we once had.

Rewetting and re-establishing a substantial portion of our natural wetlands should form an essential part of our climate change response.

Restoring wetlands should also be in the Government’s upcoming Adaptation Plan required by the Zero Carbon Act.

Incentivising farmers to restore wetlands on private land would reduce our emissions and improve our resilience to flood and drought.

New Zealand needs a national wetland restoration plan.

Let’s set ourselves an ambitious target, such as doubling the area of natural wetlands and support landowners to restore wetlands on private land.

When World Wetlands Day falls just two days after our climate reckoning, let’s take it as a sign. We can kick off our climate response with a national wetland restoration plan that protects our lives, our climate, native species, and our future.