Trend rings true in poll shocker for National

National may be in denial about its dreadful poll result on Sunday night as it attempts to convince the public it is a rogue result.

But several trends ring true in the Newshub- Reid Research poll, even if Labour’s 60.9 per cent and National’s 25.1 per cent seem too extreme.

Any rational electorate would punish National for the way it has mismanaged itself post-lockdown and reward a party of relative stability.

That is reflected in the poll: National is down and Labour is up.

The Act party has been seen as a presentable alternative on the right and would increase from one MP to four on the poll’s results.

And New Zealand First has assumed a confusing position of an opposition within the Government, pleasing no one except its bedrock of 2 per cent supporters.

One thing is certain, no matter where the figures fall between National and Labour. There is a disconnect between the way National perceives itself to have come through its recent series of crises and the way the public judges it.

National has had a sense of relief that after the failed leadership of Muller, it had someone as strong as Judith Collins to go head to head against the ever-popular Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern.

MPs see the relief in the enthusiasm of the base and an increased number of volunteers.

The caucus last week was told its internal polling has seen it rise from 35 per cent to 37 per cent straight after Collins’ election.

It was before the Andrew Falloon scandal had been factored in, but it is accepted that Collins handled that quickly and competently.

The caucus thought it had made the best of a tumultuous three weeks, which would have some impact but not as devastating as the Reid Research poll would suggest.

That poll began on July 16, the week after Hamish Walker resigned for relaying private Covid patient information to media, and two days after leader Todd Muller resigned.

It finished last Friday, the week Falloon resigned over sending sexual images to a young woman.

One of the events on its own might not have made a big impact on the voting public, but the cumulative effect has eroded National’s brand of stability and sound management which sustained it well into the 40s in polling for most of this term.

The trouble for National is that whether a poll is rogue or not is a judgment made in hindsight and there are too few public polls to make it totally clear whether it is or isn’t.

And the mere suggestion it has not got a chance in Hades is likely to suppress the party’s support in later polls. Everybody loves a winner.

A poll from the other major public pollster, Colmar Brunton, is expected out this week.

At the last election, National scored 56 MPs (41 electorate seats and 15 list).

The Reid Research poll would give National an entitlement to 32 MPs.

The positive that National can take from the poll is that it appears not to be the public’s verdict on Collins.

Her personal ratings have risen, and there are eight weeks to go to the election — perhaps enough time to save the party from decimation.