Unpredictable sport lifts odds of success
Comparison with league shows rugby is the game of surprises
Rugby lends itself perfectly to surprise. Its free-flowing nature, the unpredictable bounce of an oval ball and the specialist set pieces produce periods of play not seen in other ball sports.
As a result, Sam Whitelock can burst through mid-field and run 50m for a try and Sharks flanker Marcel Coetzee can have more tries than an All Black winger — this is the nature of Super Rugby.
I’m playing the Super Rugby and NRL Dream Team fantasy games this season and the difference between each sport becomes more apparent with every round.
NRL has largely consistent performers and predictable matchups, but fantasy Super Rugby seems to be almost impossible to predict outside of positional bias.
A great example of this can be seen as I compare the perfect First XVs from the first seven rounds of the season to the second seven completed rounds. Dream Team First XV Rounds 1-7 Israel Folau, Waratahs Julian Savea, Hurricanes Mike Harris, Rebels James Lowe, Chiefs Waisake Naholo, Highlanders Patrick Lambie, Sharks Jacobus Reinach, Sharks Sam Cane, Chiefs Michael Hooper, Waratahs Warren Whiteley, Lions Pieter-Steph du Toit, Sharks Luke Jones, Rebels Josh Hohneck, Highlanders Ben Alexander, Brumbies Reg Goodes, Hurricanes Dream Team First XV Rounds 8-14 Ben Smith, Highlanders Damien de Allende, Stormers Ma’a Nonu, Hurricanes George Moala, Blues Sefenaia Naivalu, Rebels Colin Slade, Crusaders Francois Hougaard, Bulls David Pocock, Brumbies Ardie Savea, Hurricanes Jaco Kriel, Lions Will Skelton, Waratahs Sam Whitelock, Crusaders Stephen Moore, Brumbies / Liam Coltman, Highlanders Toby Smith, Rebels Keven Mealamu, Blues This list is compiled with total points only and doesn’t take into account bye rounds, but still, not one player appears in both teams.
While this comparison illustrates how tough it is to retain a competitive side in our game, it also shows there are always opportunities to chase down your opposing fantasy coaches by riding a hot streak or buying low on undervalued players or players set to receive more minutes on the park.
With seven rounds of the competition yet to play, there is plenty of time for you to surge up the rankings through informed transfers and a pinch of luck.
My favourite informed transfers this week involve the Chiefs — Damian McKenzie ($59,200) is a steal while starting at first five, Sam Cane ($88,800) can only get better to finish the season and Bryce Heem ($63,900) should make you some cash with even a half-decent performance tonight.
Now, all I need is for the gods of rugby union to strike Andrew Mulligan’s Hurricanes-heavy side and I’ll be back in business on our expert leaderboard.