Employment confidence strong
SOUTHLAND and Otago are first and third respectively on the Westpac McDermott Miller Regional Employment Confidence index, both showing strong growth in the three months ended March.
Southland rose 17 points in the quarter to be top of the index with 123.9 points.
Otago rose 9.8 points to record 121.8 points and Bay of Plenty was up 10.6 points to come in second at 122.6.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said there was a great deal of variation in confidence across the regions.
The biggest change was in Southland, leaping from one of the least confident in December to the most confident in March.
There were also strong gains in the Bay of Plenty and Otago.
Each of those regions also experienced a strong lift in consumer confidence in the quarter, he said.
Otago Chamber of Commerce chief executive Dougal McGowan agreed there was some variation in regional confidence and he was starting to hear back from members about the impact of the increase in the minimum wage
The minimum wage goes up 75c an hour tomorrow to $16.50.
About 164,000 workers and their families would benefit from the increase.
‘‘We are starting to feel the first jitters around the minimum wage increase and what the changes could be for those employing parttime workers or those working in the hospitality industry.’’
The December survey noted a strong rise in expected earnings for the lowestincome households because of the optimism about the Government’s policies for the minimum wage, fair pay agreements, Mr McGowan said.
Now, those in higher income brackets — earning $70,000 or more a year — were also feeling confident about their employment future.
People were starting to believe they would receive a wage increase this year, although not at the rate it was in the early 2000s or at the start of 2010, he said.
Also, fewer job opportunities were being seen in the region for some occupations and people had decided to stay with current employers, now they felt a pay rise was on the way.
The three things Mr McGowan would be watching from here were the ANZ Job Ads series, the quarterly unemployment rate and the number of people working at least some hours in Otago.
The biggest drop in the Westpac employment confidence index was in NelsonMarlborough West Coast, a result matched by Westpac’s consumer confidence and regional economic confidence surveys.
There was also a sharp drop in Northland — surprising for a region expecting to be in line for a fair share of of regional development spending under the new Government.
Employment confidence continued to fall in Canterbury. The postearthquake rebuild was winding down and unemployment in the region had risen from its lows in the last couple of years, he said.
The overall Employment Confidence index continued its gradual climb in the March quarter, rising two points to 115.9.
Mr Gordon said it marked another high point since late 2008, when the global financial crisis was in full swing.
The gradual rise in employment confidence in recent years mirrored the pace of improvement in the broader economy.
Unemployment was initially slow to respond to the postGFC recovery but had since fallen back to what most estimates would suggest was a sustainable rate over the long run.
That was not to say it could not go even lower, just that further gains were more likely to come at the cost of higher inflation, he said.
While the overall improvement in the latest survey was encouraging, the details sounded a note of caution.
The gains in December were in the earnings and job security questions, which were put only to those respondents in work.
In contrast, perceptions of job opportunities — which covered all respondents, both in and out of work — had worsened since last quarter.
Business confidence fell sharply in the wake of last year’s election, Mr Gordon said.
‘‘We’re on alert of any signs this is translating into firms’ hiring and investment decisions. The fall in perceived job prospects in the March quarter is not large enough to be cause for concern. It does suggest the unemployment rate may struggle to push much lower in the near term.’’