Three cheers for MMP
With Donald Trump in striking distance of the US presidency, this is no time for New Zealand to be smug, although his rise is reason at least for us to give thanks for our voting system. The Trump phenomenon is what comes of a large number of citizens feeling frozen out of the political system. Trumpians are not the fashionably mourned “missing millions” – those who perennially don’t vote. These are mostly people who do vote, and have probably always wanted to vote, but whose views have been marginalised by the inflexible monolithic nature of the US political system. Its two-tribes-only model was not what the founding fathers envisaged, but their noble creation has calcified into a Republican-Democrat binary option that sidelines all views but the currently mainstream.
Presidential candidates such as Trump and Bernie Sanders, with their unimplementable and often mendacious policy prescriptions, may seem horribly blunt instruments with which to fight the system’s inflexibility. But clearly, the way a lot of US voters have come to feel, this vote is as much about a punishment of the system as a cure.
Britain is experiencing similar political perversities for the same reasons. Unease about immigration and European fiat mounted for years, but could never find expression within the major political parties. The UK Independence Party finally provided a viable outlet for that disquiet, yet despite garnering 12.6% of the vote last election, could win only one of the 650 electorate seats under Britain’s first-past-the-post system. This blatant injustice fed antipathy and distrust of the system, leading to the Brexit vote.
Now a different but intersecting group has effected a reverse takeover of the British Labour Party. The party members who have again defied the caucus in electing Jeremy Corbyn leader are not traditional Labour members, but newcomers. Exit polls have established that Corbyn’s challenger, Owen Smith, was the clear winner among those who were party members before 2015 and among members aged 18-24. This YouGov data tells us that those who have actually done some campaigning for Labour, along with the natural crop of new, young Labour supporters, do not identify with the party’s new direction. Labour has been repurposed by more militant forces – again, people who feel hard done by and unrepresented.
At least the Trumpians have a fair chance of success. The Corbynistas have little, there being no sign that their zeal is proving infectious to the mainstream citizenry. They seem not to care that Labour won’t win doing it their way. They despise the mainstream for, as they see it, having locked them out. Their end is punishment – even if that proscribes their ability to reform the system to make it more responsive.
We’re fortunate to have seen only a pale iteration of this in our Labour Party’s perorations, and that’s because voters here have a wider menu of options. Under MMP, every voter knows their vote will count – unless the party they give their tick fails to either get more than 5% or win an electoral seat. They will get a voice in Parliament. Our politics can be maddening and gladiatorial, but at least it is not the twosizes-fit-all straitjacket facing British and US voters. We can get much more nuanced policy-making because our Parliament can resolve into floating blocs of opinion, constantly challenging timehardened vested interests.
As popular as National has been, it has always had to count. It has never been able to make decisions without first persuading its allies, and then at least attempting to persuade its foes, to support it. We may dislike the ensuing ructions, such as NZ First throwing a spanner in the works of some Treaty settlement legislation last week. But the party’s issues with the bills were legitimate and sincere. It had every right to decline to co-operate – a right democratically conferred by proportional voting. Other countries’ systems would have shut the party out, causing its supporters’ grievances to fester and magnify to unhealthy dimensions.
Populist political gargoyles such as Trump and Ukip’s Nigel Farage have their place, but our inclusive system denies them the false glamour of underdoggery. We have a precious safety valve in proportionality. Divisive and fringe policies can be represented in our Parliament, but demagoguery will always struggle.
At least the Trumpians have a fair chance of success. The Corbynistas have little.