What might happen in 2020

This year is going to be a very exciting one for political nerds, with big elections here and in the US due towards the end of the year.

We have a tradition of predicting how each year will go, and then rounding up how we did at the end of the year. 2019 was not a great year – we only got 99/200 possible points – but that doesn’t mean our 2020 predictions will be terrible.

Read on to see what we think might happen.

is held in September – probably in the second half of the month.

will rule out working with Winston Peters early in the year, much as John Key did in 2008. The personal animosity between the pair will only increase.

is not legalised, with the ‘‘Yes’’ camp narrowly losing the referendum campaign. Scaremongering about kids and young adults smoking cannabis reaches a fever-pitch while the yes campaign can’t quite decide if it is making cannabis use safer by regulating it, or if cannabis is actually not so unhealthy after all.

on the other hand, wins its referendum, meaning David Seymour’s quest to legalise assisted dying will finally succeed – five years after he started it.

Speaking of we think he will get enough of the party vote at the election to bring in another MP, the first time ACT would have done this since 2011.

becomes an election issue, as the big four look for ways to pass on the cost of the Reserve Bank’s capital changes. NZ First tries to get a Commerce Commission market study into banks but is overruled by

Labour and the Greens, who opt to look into supermarkets or building materials instead.

and Clarke Gayford do not get married over the summer. While an electionyear wedding is possible, we think it is very unlikely – and definitely not going to happen this summer, when many had expected it would.

releases her memoir. New Zealand relives the 2014 campaign. John Key and Nicky Hager are both criticised heavily. There is also some notso-subtle pitching for the leadership.

The gets fairly ugly as Jami-lee Ross attempts to keep his career alive by any means necessary. Political blogs are somewhat involved. But Chris Luxon will win comfortably.

Labour retains control of all seven despite a spirited resurgence campaign by the Ma¯ ori Party. If John Tamihere decides to enter the fray this could be upturned.

is the Democratic nominee for US president after Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders both get enough of the vote to stay in it, splitting the left vote.

‘‘misinformation’’ is a big discussion point during the New Zealand election. National refuses to sign up to the toothless tool Facebook has provided to make the spending on its site more transparent. There are mini-scandals over perceived inaccuracies in advertisements.

Labour changes the

in a way that delivers a tax cut for lower earners but not much of one for richer people. National offers a larger tax cut.

The will evaporate, as the Government continues to find it hard to actually spend all the money it wants to spend, because of capacity constraints.

realises the capital gains tax is too complicated and announces support for a very tough wealth tax. This policy is pursued heavily and causes some trouble for Labour.

Labour will reannounce it is pursuing some of National’s

but will call them something else. (We don’t think Kiwiroads, quite.) Meanwhile, the role and performance of NZTA will come under some serious scrutiny from the Government.

will be a big electionyear issue, with parties competing to offer something strong. But neither National nor Labour will actually offer the big kahuna of free dental care for adults.

NZ First will kill off Andrew Little’s attempts to beef up

citing free speech concerns.

The Government will get more hawkish on particularly over its role in the Pacific, as pressure from Canberra and Washington builds. The trading relationship will not be harmed seriously, however.

Winston Peters will again hold the after the next election, having scraped into Parliament.