What direction now for Labour?
Labour is in Whanganui this weekend for its annual conference. The party is feeling confident ahead of next year’s general election, but the long shadow of the allegations has not yet been banished, write Henry Cooke and Collette Devlin.
Labour has work to do this weekend. Its annual conference in Whanganui will not be the last time it meets before the election, but the campaign is approaching rapidly. Decisions made now could have a huge impact on how the election is run. But before it gets to the campaign it has to clear some things off the desk.
Front of mind for some higher-ups will be the handling of the sexual assault allegations made against a Labour staffer early this year. That situation destabilised Labour, opened a rift between the party infrastructure and its MPS, and endangered its number one asset: Jacinda Ardern. It also disappointed a lot of people. Labour was supposed to have learnt its lesson after the youth camp allegations, and it clearly hadn’t.
There’s also the election of a new president – a required step after the allegations saw Nigel Haworth resign – and all the remits and other organisational matters a party this large and old will put itself through. For a party in government, conferences are a chance to regroup away from the day-to-day demands of power. This is especially key for Labour, who are probably the most at risk of losing a coherent identity in the current coalition.
Stuff spoke to a number of MPS and insiders, mostly on an off the record basis, to get a full idea of where the party is right now, about a year out from the election.
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
After the new sexual assault allegation against a Labour staffer became public earlier this year Ardern announced a variety of reviews and inquiries.
Maria Dew is looking into the actual allegation. Kensington Swan is looking into the party’s response to the allegations – with this review being looked over by another third party. And MP Poto Williams is conducting a ‘‘first principles’’ look at the culture of the party as a whole.
Both the Dew and Kensington Swan inquiries are expected in December, meaning the spectre remains over the party. But the Williams’ work will get some time this morning, when she holds a session on ‘‘Creating a safe and inclusive party’’ – with questions and answers from members and examples of best practice. This, like most of the conference, will be closed tomedia.
Ardern is also expected to address the allegations in her opening speech, and a MP noted the allegations were sure to be hanging in the air. Everyone Stuff talked to agreed the party needed to get better at responding to serious allegations.
‘‘The key thing is Labour has to professionalise and get that stuff sorted,’’ one insider said. ‘‘It has to have proper processes in place so when these things emerge they are dealt with appropriately.’’
MP and campaign chair Megan Woods said the Prime Minister had committed the party to ‘‘an exhaustive examination of all the issues. And we will act on them.’’
ELECTING A NEW PRESIDENT
The allegations scandal opened up a rift between Ardern’s office and the party’s nonparliamentary leadership, many of whom remain adamant that the complaint was handled adequately. Closing that rift will be a big job for the new president, who will be elected this evening.
The two main candidates are Habitat for Humanity CEO Claire Szabo and Labour’s senior Ma¯ori vice-president Tane Philips, a union secretary from Kawerau. Szabo is the clear favourite, known to have a bit of a nod from the party’s leadership. Obviously having awoman – and awomanwith serious experience outside of the party – would make sense as the party deals with the results of those reviews.
But writing off Philips completely would be silly. Labour is the only party without a Ma¯ori leader in Parliament and keeping all seven Ma¯ori seats next year will be key to keeping National short of allies to go into power with. Many in the membership will know Philips from his time within the party and those connections are powerful.
He points out in his candidacy flier his pride in winning those seven seats over his two terms as senior vice president. If elected, his aim was to ensure the party was ‘‘fighting fit’’ for the 2020 election. This included its finances, so establishing a capital fund was his priority. He planned to tap into his connections in the Ma¯ori world and economy to make that happen.
Meanwhile, outside-chance Lorna Crane was nominated by the West Coast-tasman Labour Electorate Committee and has promised a ‘‘steadying hand, a calming influence and unifying quality’’ at this time of ‘‘unanticipated upheaval in the New Zealand Labour Party’’. In semi-retirement, her services are frequently called upon as an advocate and she occasionally aids in conflict resolution, she said.
PROTECT JACINDA
A good relationship between Ardern and the new president will be key going into the election year, as the prime minister is easily the party’s best weapon.
This means protecting Ardern’s brand will be incredibly important.
There’s an image outside the party that Ardern is basically the only thing the party has going for it – that this is still that chaotic party of opposition, just with a different leader on top. MPS generally disagree with this, and other ministers certainly have a way of making their influence felt. But most acknowledge the prime minister is a whole lot more than a first among equals.
‘‘Everyone’s aware that they are only there because of Jacinda. If they’re not they need to get that into their head very quickly,’’ one insider said.
One contentious issue was the capital gains tax, where Ardern basically ditched a decade of Labour policy and committed herself to never supporting one. There was barely any discontent.
‘‘Jacinda made a call and caucus backed her,’’ Woods said.
Every MP spoken to emphasised the degree to which the party was behind Ardern.
The exception, if there is any, would be the Ma¯ori caucus. None of them are planning an active revolt but there is some discontent. One of the lingering issues was around how co-chair Meka Whaitiri was treated when a complaint was made about her allegedly grabbing a press secretary.
Whaitiri denies the allegation to this day and has made it very clear that she wants a ministerial position of some sort back, but a real path back to some sort of power seems unlikely in the wake of the Francis Review into bullying.
In the meantime, Whaitiri’s been given the hospital pass of the Justice select committee, easily the least functional committee in Parliament.
That is not the only issue getting the Ma¯ori caucus up in arms. Despite delivering 13 MPS – including a clean sweep of the Ma¯ori seats – there are only two Ma¯ori MPS from Labour in Cabinet.
One of them may be the deputy leader, but it’s an open secret within Wellington that Grant Robertson pulls the strings a lot more than Kelvin Davis does.
The Ma¯ori caucus feel the heat from Ma¯ori themselves, particularly in the electorates. Ihuma¯tao remains unsolved. Targeted Ma¯ori funding is rare.
Bothwaiariki and Ta¯maki Makaurau are seen as being in play next year, with the Ma¯ori Party desperate to make a comeback.
If the comeback is successful then winning the election by making sure National has no friends to go into coalition with becomes a whole lot harder.
WARY CONFIDENCE
There have been 20 public polls since this Government came to power. In every poll but one the current Government would have been re-elected.
In the Stuff/yougov poll released on Monday, Ardern would be able to govern with either NZ First or the Greens.
This poll, which many say is not far off the internal polling, has given some confidence to Labour. But they also know there was one poll which showed National winning as recently as October.
Again, Ardern is key. The huge popularity of her ‘‘achievements in two-minutes’’ video earlier this year assuage some of the worries the party had about National beating them in social media, so key to modern elections.
And as the race gets more ‘‘presidential’’ during the debates, MPS are sure she can wipe the floor with Simon Bridges.
But voters do technically elect parties in New Zealand, not leaders. And Labour aren’t currently recruiting anyone quite as exciting as Christopher Luxon to stand for them. Indeed most of the candidates standing in winnable seats this time stood last time too.
That’s why the conference is in Whanganui, where every hotel in town has been booked out.
Whanganui used to be a safe Labour seat, won by National only twice in the entire 20th century. Chester Borrows ended that dominance in 2005, but when he retired at the last election it seemed Labour might really have a shot at winning it back. Young lawyer Steph Lewis ended up 1700 votes behind. If Labour wants to win and win well next year, it’ll be hoping people like Lewis up and down the country – who got close but not close enough last time – will finally come to Parliament.