* India as a Great Power & International Mediator * Pakistan in Multiple Crises

India as a Great Power

India is now the world’s most populous country, according to UN projections.

In June, Prime Mnister Narendra Modi was feted at a state dinner in Washington, D.C.

In a recent Project Syndicate oped, Shashi Tharoor, a member of the Indian Parliament from the opposition Indian National Congress (INC) and former minister [he was also undersecretary general of the UN], wrote that Modi was “riding high,” having deepened a USIndia relationship laced with tech investment and defence partnership.

India’s tech potential could catch American interest.

India’s Role as an International Mediator

In a recent essay in Foreign Affairs, an Indian commentator, Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of Diplomacy & Disarmament at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi explores the possibility of India bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table (August 2, 2023).

Jacob decries the Western stance of seeing the fencesitting and functional neutrality of democracies/emerging economies such as Brazil, India and South Africa as tantamount to condoning Russian actions or rejecting liberal norms and values.

However, some of these “fencesitters” have decided that waiting passively on the sidelines is not an option enhancing their international image and are now actively seeking an end to the war.

A number of “peace plans” have come from some countries in the Global South in recent months, with separate initiatives advanced by Brazil, Indonesia, and a group of African countries. Now Prof. Jacob is suggesting that India also jump into this bandwagon.

But their very stance in the war precludes them from adopting a mediating role. They have after all refused to recognize that Russia has started an aggressive war – forbidden by the Charter of the United Nations: “armed force shall not be used, save in the common interest” (Preamble).

It is noteworthy that Brazil, South Africa and India are members of BRICS, in which China and Russia are prominent members, and also aspire to becoming permanent members of the UN Security Council – the executive organ primarily tasked with upholding international peace and security! However, Jacob himself concedes that conditions on the battlefield would have to change decisively before either Moscow or Kyiv would be willing to enter into meaningful negotiations towards ending the armed conflict.

Russia and Ukraine, according to his assessment, have not reached a mutually hurting stalemate that would force them to the negotiating table.

Neither side is currently seeking a cease-fire or diplomatic resolution to the war.

Russia appears inclined toward a protracted war, believing that over the long-term it has the upper hand.

Ukraine believes that the momentum is in its favour, but it needs more crucial battlefield successes in order to negotiate from a position of strength.

With these hard line stances, it is difficult to see any light at the end of the tunnel, with Jacob insisting that diplomacy can still help limit and blunt the death and destruction of the war and its parallel effects for the global economy.

Global South countries – or rather the Emergent Economies – or any would-be mediator for that reason, are in no way better placed than Western countries or China to serve as neutral arbiters. It is not enough that they have not taken clear sides in the war. In fact, this is the basic problem. There is no recognition that it was not Ukraine that started the war in the first place. It is not primarily responsible for the death and destruction. There is no way that Putin can justify his heinous actions. Now he has weaponized food.

The would-be mediators should start with Russia and work on Putin himself.

They seem to have finally woken up to the enormous damage to the world economy, and especially to the poorest of the poor countries, but unfortunately applying (diplomatic and moral) pressure on the wrong end.

India the Arbiter?

Jacob maintains that India, as a ‘significant power’ that has been assiduously courted by both Russia and Ukraine can claim a major role as mediator. It could:

• Facilitate much-needed conversations between the warring parties

[where, when and how?]

• Moderate the humanitarian impact of the armed conflict

[India could start by requesting Putin not to target civilians, civilian infrastructure and cultural heritage sites]

• Help alleviate the economic damage the war has wreaked on the Global South

[for starters India could ask Putin to re-start the ‘grain deal’ and make substantial donations of grain to the poorest countries] India’s Interests

India’s so-called change of heart is principally motivated by its vital interests at stake, as Jacob concedes.

• Modi’s desire to present himself as a global statesman heading into general elections in 2024,

• Growing Indian concerns about Chinese regional and international ambitions,

• The concurrent need to cater to Western sensibilities. India supposedly has a unique opportunity to get involved in the mediation process because it continues to maintain warm ties with Moscow.

After meeting Zelenskiy, Modi called Putin to urge “dialogue and diplomacy” in ending the war. At the last G – 20 summit in Indonesia, India helped the group’s members to come to an agreement on the language of the official declaration.

This September, India will host the next G – 20 summit.

According to Jacob, India could bring the adversaries to the table in pursuit of more tentative agreements and understandings. It could encourage and facilitate dialogue between the parties on a range of lower order issues. However, since Ukraine is not a member of the G-20 and is unlikely to be invited, it is difficult to see how the other countries can discuss Ukraine over the heads of its principal decision-makers.

But perhaps Modi is bold enough to invite Ukraine’s distinguished foreign minister to the summit to participate in various official and unofficial meetings.

Considering the importance of food security in the world at large, India could persuade Moscow to renew the grain deal.

Domestic Constraints

However, India has considerable domestic constraints to function as a great power or an international mediator.

Modi’s and his party’s, the BJP’s Hindu nationalistic agenda is a very corrosive agenda in India’s democracy.

Moreover, Modi seems unwilling and unable to quell ethnic and religious violence – lately in Manipur and Haryana.

His domestic travails are bound to impact his foreign policy negatively.

Pakistan In Crisis

Pakistan is on the brink.

The collapse of the nucleararmed, regional power could have serious repercussions for the region South Asia and the world at large.

Pakistan has been hit by a series of rolling disasters – including catastrophic flooding last year, political paralysis, economic meltdown, and a resurgent terrorist threat.

These now risk sending a significant, if unsettled, global player into full-blown multiple crises.

Many experts, like Murtaza Hussain of The Intercept, warn that if the worst comes to pass, the catastrophe unfolding in Pakistan will have consequences far beyond its borders.

“This is a country of 220 million people [world’s fifth largest, and second largest Muslim state] with nuclear weapons and serious internal conflicts and divisions,” said Uzair Younus, the director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.

“The world didn’t like the outflows of refugees and weapons that came from countries like Syria and Libya. In comparison, Pakistan is magnitudes larger and more consequential.”

“If the economy remains in a moribund state, and there are shortages of goods and energy leading to a political crisis on the streets of major cities, that would also allow the Pakistani Taliban and other terrorist groups to begin hitting at the government more directly," said Younus.

“We would see a significant weakening of the state and its capacity to impose order.”

The Primacy of Politics

The Atlantic Council’s James M. Lindsay and Sadanand Dhume, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a South Asia columnist for the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) project three highlights from the crises wracking Pakistan:

1. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan is challenging the Pakistani military’s control of the country in “a clash between Pakistan’s most popular leader and its most powerful institution.” Khan is undoubtedly one of Pakistan’s true national figures. He led Pakistan to its first and only cricket world championship, raised funds to establish the country’s first and only cancer hospital, and opened up a technical college.

He also created the political party that brought him to power as prime minister in 2018.

However, the magic Khan displayed on the pitch eluded him when it came to governing.

Last year in April, he was ousted as prime minister on a noconfidence vote. But ironically this rejuvenated his popularity. Suddenly, he became the people’s voice, attacking entrenched institutions, particularly the allpowerful military.

The institutions fought back. In May this year, he was arrested on corruption charges.

Mass protests quickly swept the country.

Khan was again arrested Sunday at his home in the eastern city of Lahore and taken to a highsecurity prison after a court handed him a three-year sentence for corruption, a development that could end his future in politics (Associated Press, Aug. 6). Pakistan’s politics is now in uncharted terrain.

2. Pakistan’s political crisis comes on top of economic, climate, and terrorism crises.

The country’s foreign exchange reserves have plummeted to just US Dollar $ 4 billion, all the while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is reviewing a bailout package to prevent economic collapse.

Floods triggered by historic monsoons last summer covered a third of the country in water. Many towns and villages are still struggling to recover – and fear they will see more flooding this year too.

The country’s infrastructure has long been neglected. Its aging power grid struggles to meet demand for electricity, making blackouts/load-shedding a part of daily life.

Terrorism is also on the rise – largely due to the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan. Earlier this year, a suicide bomber killed more than 100 people gathered in a Peshwar mosque.

A polycrisis has now engulfed the country according to most South Asian experts.

3. Pakistan’s neighbours, allies and friends are following its crises very closely.

China

Pakistan owes China some US Dollar $ 30 billion. Beijing wants to get repaid. But it also wants to maintain good ties with Islamabad, which it sees as crucial to its plan for supremacy. As a rising power in South Asia itself, Sino-Pakistani relations are of the utmost relevance. It must raise Pakistan as a bulwark against Indian dominance in the Indian Ocean region.

India

India, in Sadanand’s judgement, views Pakistan’s predicament “mostly with glee and schadenfreude.”

New Delhi is not likely to take