All set in stone?
The decision to delay umno party polls after the general elections has sparked a debate between camps on whether GE15 would be called sooner than later.
IS it fait accompli that Umno polls will be held within six months after the 15th general election?
It is if you talk to most Umno leaders and members, including Team Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is party president.
They think that the decision during Umno’s extraordinary general meeting (EGM) on May 15 had tightened the pressure on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob to call for GE15 sooner than later.
The logic to this is that the Umno leaders who want GE15 as soon as possible such as Zahid and deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan will still be in control of the party in the run-up to the general election. Those who oppose their stand that the best time to hold GE15 is now would have to toe the party line. If not, they might not be fielded as candidates.
But if you talk to some of the Umno leaders in the Cabinet Cluster (those currently in the Cabinet), they think it is not fait accompli that party polls will be held after GE15.
These leaders want party polls to be held before Dec this year. By then, the Umno election would have been postponed for 18 months after the 2018/2021 term ended on June 30 last year.
They want party polls so that they have the opportunity to contest posts such as president and deputy president. If they win, their fate in Umno and GE15 would not be determined by those currently in control.
If they replace Zahid and Mohamad Hasan as president and deputy president of Umno, they might not pressure the Prime Minister to call for a snap election.
A Cabinet Cluster insider believed that tai chi moves could derail the decision to delay the party polls. He explained that it was very important to understand that despite the Umno EGM passing the amendment to the party constitution to change the 18 months deferment period for party polls to six months after the general elections, the said amendment must be submitted to the Registrar of Societies (ROS) for approval.
“The amendments can only come into effect after the approval of ROS.” he reiterated.
The insider believed there was a possibility that the ROS could delay the process of approving the amendment to Umno’s constitution.
“If it is after Dec 21, Zahid is toast,” he said.
The Cabinet Cluster insider contended that Team Zahid was running out of time and options. He said Zahid’s term as Umno president ended on June 22, 2021, and having invoked the 18 months deferment, his extended term will end on Dec 23, 2022.
“If those opposing Zahid can delay GE15 until the end of the year, Zahid is finished because he is forced to hold party elections by then,” he said.
“The pressure now is on Zahid, Tok Mat (Mohamad Hasan) and company as they have no good options.”
He added, “Team Zahid’s EGM move does not checkmate the Cabinet Cluster because they have many options. Those who don’t understand how the legal provisions and ROS work will tend to make an inaccurate analysis.”
The Cabinet Cluster insider said if Umno did not get any approval from ROS and did not hold its party election by Dec 23, the party runs the risk of being de-registered.
“Alternatively, the ROS can technically put Umno into ‘receivership’ and appoint independent professionals to conduct the party election to have a proper transition and keep Umno from being de-registered,” he said.
The insider saw the possibility that Umno polls to start as early as July. He said that the branch and division polls take about three to four months to complete to hold party elections for the Umno top posts.
“All these must be concluded before the election for the top positions at the end of the year (if ROS doesn’t approve the amendment),” he said.
The Cabinet Cluster insider revealed that there were ministers who have started campaigning for the Umno polls as they expect it to be held by the end of the year. He listed the jelajah (explore) and Hari Raya Open House campaign trail nationwide.
I double-checked the scenario the Cabinet Cluster insider gave with Team Zahid. For them, the Umno election after GE15 is fait accompli. So is GE15 to be held this year.