2024 general elections likely to be neck-and-neck race
Survey indicates no party holds comfortable lead
Exactly 100 days are left until the April 10 general elections.
The conservative People Power Party (PPP) is determined to reshape the composition of the current Assembly, dominated by its liberal adversary, the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). The DPK, meanwhile, is determined to maintain its dominance to act as a counterbalance to the governing party and the Yoon Suk Yeol administration.
The upcoming elections could be more unpredictable than previous ones, as prominent politicians — Lee Nak-yon from the liberal bloc and Lee Jun-seok from the conservative camp — have announced their intentions to form new parties to challenge the traditional two-party race.
Nevertheless, all players face an uphill battle in winning the hearts and minds of voters, as no one currently holds a comfortable lead, according to a recent survey conducted by Hankook Research at the request of the Hankook Ilbo, the sister paper of The Korea Times.
The polls, conducted between Dec. 26 and 27, revealed that 35 percent of 1,000 people aged 18 and above who were surveyed remain undecided about which party candidate to vote for in their constituency in the upcoming elections. Another 29 percent said they would vote for a PPP candidate, while 25 percent voiced support for a DPK candidate.
Among the respondents, 30 percent agreed that the DPK should win the elections to help indicate the public’s disapproval of Yoon’s government, while 26 percent believed that the PPP should win, thereby showing their distrust of the main opposition party. However, another 22 percent said both sides deserve the public’s disapproval.
The PPP is seeking to regain voters’ trust under the leadership of Han Dong-hoon, who assumed the role of the party’s interim chief in late December after resigning from the post of justice minister.
Hopes are high that Han, an outspoken former prosecutor, will spearhead those efforts.
According to the poll, 41 percent of respondents believe that Han’s leadership will boost the PPP’s approval rating in the elections.
Meanwhile, the DPK chairman continues to grapple with efforts to move past the shadow of his scandals, including a contentious land development project in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, among other controversies.
In the survey, 48 percent said that the result of Lee’s trial would be a key election issue. More than half, or 57 percent, thought that Lee should resign from his post as DPK chairman.
Due to the ongoing internal feud caused by Lee’s weakened leadership, the main opposition party has so far failed to properly utilize to its advantage the public’s growing discontent toward the Yoon administration and the governing party.
Despite the public being beset by a slew of scandals surrounding first lady Kim Keon Hee — with 51 percent of the respondents citing a special counsel investigation into her stock manipulation allegation as a key election issue — not many are turning to support the DPK.
It remains to be seen whether the new parties, led by the former PPP and DPK leaders, will be successful.
Only 18 percent of the respondents indicated that they were willing to vote for a new party created by the former PPP leader, while 20 percent expressed support for the former DPK leader’s group.
A year and a half into office, Yoon is still grappling with low approval ratings, as the survey showed. This could pose challenges for the ruling party, as the upcoming parliamentary elections are widely seen as a referendum on Yoon’s leadership.
According to the poll, 58 percent disapproved of Yoon’s job performance. The ratio was higher among liberal supporters, with 84 percent disapproving and only 12 percent approving. Among conservative supporters, 65 percent approved, while 31 percent disapproved.
Among the 577 respondents who held a negative view of Yoon, 31 percent cited concerns about his background as a prosecutor and his appointments of public officials based on personal connections rather than professionalism. Additionally, 23 percent pointed to a lack of leadership, while 12 percent raised issues regarding scandals involving the president’s family members.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with a credibility rate of 95 percent. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.