Dilemmas of Moon’s 4-track diplomacy
The Moon Jae-in government seems to be derailing, although not seriously, its four-track diplomacy. Since the Moon administration took control in May, it has been faced with a variety of dilemmas in and around Northeast Asia. For instance it has been confronted with the continued nuclear and missile provocations by North Korea. Amid the dilemmas, President Moon had several summits, including ones with U.S. President Donald Trump and at the G20 in Hamburg, Germany. The summits are considered to have been relatively successful. However he has yet to seek a solution to the dilemmas accumulated since then.
The first dilemma in his four-track diplomacy is that he has yet to seek a breakthrough in the ongoing nuclear and missile provocations. Moon hinted at a freer and more self-controlling approach to the issue at a face-to-face summit with Trump. He thought that Trump had allowed him to take away this issue. But this thinking turned out to be not the case, two months after the summit. Moon’s way in this matter now is seen as difficult to work with, although it is basically a problem between Seoul and Pyongyang.
The second dilemma in his diplomacy is that Moon’s peace overture was rebuffed by Pyongyang and looked down upon by the White House. This is a fundamental difference in military strategy on the one hand between Seoul and Washington, and on the other between Seoul and Pyongyang. It also differs from Beijing’s stance. He seems, however, to be focused rather on a soft approach to the issue — dialogue first and pressure second. Trump appears to emphasize the necessity of the hard approach — maximum pressure first and dialogue second. Trump now prefers his own approach amid the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, a Hwaseong-14 and a presumed upcoming sixth test of nuclear weapon. Such provocations by Pyongyang threaten, in the eyes of Trump, peace and stability in the Northeast Asian region as a whole. The sudden but expected launch of the second advanced intercontinental ballistic missile further worsened the environment for peace.
The third dilemma in his diplomatic course ahead is gaps in reopening the long stalled six-party nuclear talks. Seoul, Washington, Beijing, Tokyo and Moscow have hoped to clamp down on nuclear-missile threats. These threats could lead to a world crisis, if not removed at the proper time. Nevertheless, gaps are still lingering among the four big powers on the matter. Moon’s diplomatic team should study how to find zero-sum gaps in security and strategy among the four, which in turn could produce a breakthrough for the denuclearization of North Korea. There cannot be peace and stability without denuclearization.
South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia urgently need to agree to remove the increasing nuclear-missile threats here. For this goal of primary importance, the big four powers must reopen the nuclear six-party talks under the chairmanship of China.
The last dilemma is how to install the THAAD battery as soon as possible. The Moon government is being pushed to finish an environmental impact assessment at the shortest possible time because Pyongyang is increasingly closer to achieving a more perfect intercontinental ballistic missile. The government needs not to worry much about Beijing’s pressure as the deployment is our own sovereign matter. It cannot afford to lose any time in this respect.
The White House is pursuing its own thinking at this point — a hard power operation if diplomatic measures no longer work. The U.S. field leaders are ready to suggest hard power strategies. Commander Harris Jr. of the U.S. Pacific Command, known as a hard-liner recently stated to offer his own hard-line measures to President Trump. He warned in a lecture at the U.S. Embassy to Japan that North Korea “was already equipped with intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the US mainland. This is a threat not only to the US but to the entire world.”
In the dangerous situation of facing imminent nuclear and missile provocations, President Moon is in dire need of launching a super dynamic four-track diplomacy. This diplomacy must aim, among other things, to avoid a horrible war on the peninsula and to ensure a minimum assured deterrent with THAAD installed at a right time. For this diplomatic action, he must hurry to win the support of the big four powers. The nuclear and missile problems are not confined only to Seoul and Pyongyang, but at the same time the world.
Chinese political and military leaders today should acknowledge that THAAD is not an offensive weapon but a defensive one in preparation for incoming North Korean missiles. Considering the threats, Beijing should stop its economic retaliation against Seoul as a strategic partner, and renormalize relations. This is a way to maintain durable peace and stability in Northeast Asia. Heo Mane, professor emeritus, is president of the Korea-EU Forum.