No use panicking about COVID-19 spike
As an epidemiologist and retired public health inspector, after 40 years of meddling with several outbreaks of epidemic in Jamaica, I have a different perspective from those with no epidemiological training or grossly lacking in the practical aspect of co
The present spike as recorded by the ongoing daily tests is nothing to be alarmed about. The total number of infections recorded by the samples which is showing just under 30,000 members in the population are infected by the disease is absolute ignorance. To determine how many people have the disease is a simple statistical exercise similar to the one used to determine how voters will vote.
These statistics tell us that over 1.2 million of the three million people in the Jamaican population will or have already contracted the disease, which is the normal expected profile of the disease as it moves into community spread, which ultimately will lead to national immunity or herd immunity and a rapid fall in the sampling figures.
The good thing about this spike is that the disease is moving towards the end which we need to anticipate to have the country back to normal.
Let us not exaggerate the problem because the vast number of those infected with the disease will not show any sign or symptom, and only about 1.5 per cent of those who show signs will be hospitalised and only a small percentage will lead to death. Locking down the country is not only foolish but a recipe for social and economic disaster.
As an epidemiologist and retired public health inspector, after 40 years of meddling with several outbreaks of epidemic in Jamaica, I have a different perspective from those with no epidemiological training or grossly lacking in the practical aspect of communicable disease management. The real problem at hand is not the spike, but the Government’s ill preparation for handling the infection.
The following is the plan the Government needed as a strategic control and to keep the socio-economic climate healthy:
1) Given that the disease had initially no drug or vaccine for treatment and control, they needed to put in place all the present protocols of hand washing, sanitisation, mask-wearing, and physical distancing as well as an advertising campaign to support it. On which they have scored highly.
2) I gave them a formula, published elsewhere in 2020, setting out a wide range of activities that each individual and family can practice to boost their personal immunity. Among those stated were proper dieting, which includes the removal of harmful cooking utensils like aluminium, nonstick pots, table salt and hydrogenated oils; exercise; and rest, along with regular detoxification of the colon and liver, etc.
3) Exploit Jamaica’s most enviable brand as an eclectic super achiever on the world stage, having led the world in sports, music, beauty, academics, and the irresistible romantic charm of the island, etc, to formulate a comprehensive epidemiological plan for the management and control of the disease and present this to the World Health Organization (WHO) and our international partners who, by their long history, have been our supporters over decades. They would then provide us with personnel and equipment to combat the disease. This could be done by calculating the number of beds needed based on the expected level of hospitalisation, which is approximately 700-888.
This very brave proactive and innovative move would have catapulted us to the top of the fight against COVID-19.