Lebanon may pay for Nasrallah’s Oct. 7 error
One day after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah rushed to join the fighting. However, since the beginning and even until today, the “support” it provides to Hamas is limited and even just symbolic.
The terrorist organization attacks IDF positions and Israeli towns along the border, but takes care not to escalate the conflict into a full-scale war. While Israel has evacuated northern residents from their homes and suffered losses, it strikes Hezbollah with a force unprecedented in the past, and so far, the organization has lost nearly 200 terrorists in IDF strikes.
It is possible that when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah ordered his men to join the fighting alongside Hamas, he assumed that the war in Gaza would be short and end, as in the past, with a ceasefire that preserves Hamas’s rule in the Gaza Strip. But that’s not what happened.
In 130 days of fighting, the IDF gained control over large parts of Gaza, weakened Hamas’s military power, and is now approaching Rafah, Hamas’s last stronghold.
This is an uncomfortable reality for Nasrallah, who finds himself under a harsh spotlight in the Arab world, as many accuse him of not doing enough for Gaza. After all, he could have launched an all-out campaign against Israel and used his forces, including Hezbollah’s Radwan Force.
Additionally, in Lebanon, there is growing concern that they will be next after Israel finishes dealing with Hamas.
Israeli officials explicitly threatened that Israel’s patience is running out and that there will come a time when it will act to change the situation in the North, whether through diplomacy or military action.
We have heard speeches like this several times in recent months since the war
began. Nasrallah praised his victories and achievements to boost morale and reassure worried listeners in Lebanon that Hezbollah is ready for war and that it still intimidates
Israel, which does not dare to act against it deep in Lebanon.
He also promised that the organization will not stop attacking Israel before a ceasefire in Gaza and that it will not agree to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, as the American and French mediators hope.
Nasrallah’s speech was not new or very truthful. He did not tell his listeners about the reality in Gaza, although it can be assumed that everyone in Lebanon knows what Hamas has brought upon the people under their rule, and everyone in Lebanon is also concerned that the same fate will happen to Beirut.
Nasrallah also did not tell his listeners about the heavy blows the IDF struck against Hezbollah, even though they insist on reporting the casualties in their ranks almost every evening.
For the first time, the ball is no longer in Nasrallah’s court, but in Israel’s hands, as it is the one to decide whether it wants to add and intensify its efforts in Gaza and maintain the conflict in Lebanon with limited fire, or perhaps turn its attention to escalation on the northern border as well. Nasrallah knows this and all he can do is try to calm his supporters and try to intimidate the Israelis so they won’t even consider going for a fullscale war against Hezbollah.
From Nasrallah’s speech, it seems that he is not convinced that Israel is truly willing to go all the way. He believes, or at least hopes, that the reality that prevailed on the northern border before October 6 will return after the end of the fighting in Gaza, meaning the presence of armed Hezbollah terrorists on the border.
Perhaps for this reason, he did not leave a window open in his speech for the diplomatic effort that Washington and Paris are trying to promote in order to reach an agreement and prevent escalation.
What he meant was that the limited confrontation will continue in the North as long as the fighting in Gaza persists and Hezbollah’s determination does not allow Israel to change the security reality on the northern border.
Nasrallah said his piece. Now we have to wait for the Israeli leadership to finally decide to put an end to the impossible reality on the northern border and restore security to the North and return the residents to their homes, as it promised in recent weeks.