Brexit – it might not be so bad if we knew what it was
MANY West Kerry businesses will be affected by Britain’s departure from the EU but they are unable to prepare because they still don’t know what kind of trading situation they will face following the Brexit deadline, which is now only two months away.
Although tourism, which is now the main industry in West Kerry, is the most obvious area to be affected by Brexit and a probable fall in the value of Sterling, the impact will be much more far-reaching, with implications for farming, craft workers and even the supply of basic household goods.
For Comharchumann Uan Chiarraí in Baile na hAbha, Lios Póil, the implications of Brexit are potentially very serious. The co-operative buys most of the wool produced in West Kerry, along with additional wool sourced throughout Kerry and Munster, and exports it to Bradford in England. Comharchumann manager Seán Moriarty told The Kerryman that the information he has at this point indicates that raw wool exports to Britain will be exempt from tariffs even in the event of a ‘ no-deal’ Brexit.
However, the reality is that he doesn’t know what will happen in the longer term and with the price of wool “so ridiculously low at the moment” any additional costs could seriously upset the delicate balance of the co-op’s 500 tonnes-a-year wool export business.
“It’s a difficult scenario – the people we deal with [in Bradford] don’t know what’s going to happen and the people who transport the wool don’t know either,” he said.
Wool also features in Máire Ní Laighin’s business, although in this case it’s at the end product side of things. Máire owns the Mad Hatters milners and boutique in Holy Ground, Dingle, which combines her hat making business with crafts and ladies fashions and it’s an area of business where the effects of Brexit are multi-faceted.
Some of the materials Máire uses to make hats are bought in Britain. If Brexit results in higher prices she may be forced to find new suppliers and with that comes all the difficulties associated with moving away from people with whom she has established good relationships, who know her business and the quality of materials she needs.
Meanwhile, some of the clothes in her shop are bought directly from Britain, more comes from EU countries but is sourced through Britain – in both cases potential higher duties, difficulties in currency transfers and shipping delays could impact on her business.
On top of all this there is the more obvious consequence of fewer tourists from Britain. This will affect tourism everywhere in Ireland but Máire thinks West Kerry will be particularly susceptible. Decades of emigration has formed close links between West Kerry and Britain and first and second generation emigrants returning ‘ home’ boost local tourism. However, a fall in the value of Sterling will make West Kerry a more costly holiday option and that will mean less tourists coming here from Britain and those who do come will have less money to spend.
“We don’t know where Brexit is going except that a ‘no-deal’ situation looks more likely… and not knowing is a bit problem. When you don’t know, you can’t prepare,” she says.
A few doors away in Sheehy’s Spar supermarket Patrick Sheehy offers a practical lesson on what Brexit will mean for consumers.
He illustrates the point with a walk around the shop pointing out that “you have to think about where products are coming from”. For example, any cereal with ‘Kellogg’ on the label – and there are lots of them! – comes from Britain. Most of the cleaning products on his shelves are produced bby Unilever, so they come from the UK as well. The same applies to nappies, most toilet paper, soap, Coke, McVitties biscuits, any Nescafé or Knorr products, even Charleville cheese is UK registered, along with the likes of Danone, Alpro, Muller yyoghurt and Tropicana fruit juice.
Patrick estimates that about 70 per cent of supermarket products come from the UK and Brexit means pricesp are likely to go up and the continuity of supply is threatened. The seriousness of the situation is underlined by the fact that most Irish wholesalers are already stockpiling non-perishable items.
“You just don’t know what going to happen, but prices are going to go up,” he says. “This will happen whether there is a deal or no deal, but it’ll be worse if there’s no deal.”
Louis Mulcahy’s pottery in Clogher provides a practical example of the extent to which Brexit can impact on people’s lives and businesses in Ireland. Most of Louis’ customers are IIrish, American or North European, so he isn’t badly exposed to a fall-off in British tourists. However, the cclay that is used to make his pottery comes from Britain and therein lies a problem. Louis can source clay elsewhere in the EU but his requirements are very exacting so he needs to buy from a supplier he can trust to deliver consistent quality. He has that kind of relationship with his clay supplier in Britain and he can establish a similar working relationship elsewhere if needs be. The problem is that he still doesn’t know if he needs to go down that route.
And it is this issue of not knowing what shape Brexit will take that affects a great many businesses in West Kerry. People can’t safeguard against what they don’t know and the uncertainty this causes is damaging in itself.
It’s not all bad though, as Patrick Sheehy points out: “At least we have Barry’s and Lyons tea and Siúcra – we can survive on that.”