Ryan’s nightmare legacy for party
Eamon Ryan stepping down as the leader of the Greens after 13 years at the helm leaves a party in a poor state, with slim chances of its 2020 success stories being re-elected
THE loss of former MEP Ciarán Cuffe’s seat in Dublin, allied to fears that two-thirds of his sitting TDs will face the electoral axe, were the key factors in Eamon Ryan’s decision to stand down as Green Party leader, the Irish Mail on Sunday has learned.
As the battle to replace Mr Ryan unfolds, Green sources this weekend said the outgoing leader feared leading the party into a nightmare repeat of the wipeout 2011 general election, when it lost all of its six sitting TDs.
It comes as a MoS analysis also shows that the party are only really in with a shout of retaining three of its current 12 Dáil seats.
Even leadership favourite Roderic O’Gorman faces an uphill battle to retain his seat in Dublin West, where he was elected on the last count in 2020 and where he suffered the ignominy of losing all his councillors in the local elections.
His leadership rival, Senator Pippa Hackett, also has only an outside chance of claiming a seat in Offaly, where Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are enjoying a revival and Independent Carol Nolan is unlikely to be dethroned.
Faced with this scenario, one senior party source said of Mr Ryan’s decision to quit now: ‘He has been in power for a long time. It is becoming very trying. Does he want to preside over another meltdown like Election 2011?’
In an indication of the weariness in the party hierarchy, there were even attempts to canvass a role for the departing leader as a compromise candidate for the coveted EU Commissioner post, which is expected to go to Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath, the Minister for Finance.
‘There was the sense of a need for change. Everyone was fed-up,’ another party source said.
However, senior Green Party figures believe the loss of Ciarán Cuffe’s seat was the catalyst for this week’s announcement.
One source told the MoS: ‘Morale within the party has collapsed. All of the [Green] ministers now fear for their seats. The reality is beginning to bite that they, not Sinn Féin, were the ones cannibalised by the electorate.
‘The hierarchy had more or less given up on Malcolm Noonan, Brian Leddin and Marc Ó Cathasaigh and left them to their own devices. But when Cuffe lost his seat there was a panic, as suddenly the hierarchy realised the fire was burning under their own feet.’
Another senior party figure said Sinn Féin’s poor performance in the local elections ‘initially hid how bad it was for us’. But he added: ‘Then [Sinn Féin president] Mary Lou McDonald started winning EU seats and Eamon started losing seats. They expected [outgoing Ireland South MEP] Grace O’Sullivan to lose out, but Ciarán Cuffe came, for some reason, as a shock to them.’
Another figure associated with the Greens said: ‘Ciarán’s loss is the one that burns. He was part of the officer class, but after all these results all those ministers realise they are all in trouble.’
‘[Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth] Roderic O’Gorman was going around like a shadow; he lost all his councillors. [Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media
Minister] Catherine Martin has a huge fox, Mick Fleming, just arrived with 3,600 Independent votes in her constituency.
‘The Green vote halved in Dublin Bay South. [Minister of State] Joe O’Brien lost all his councillors. [Minister of State] Ossian Smyth’s councillors came back – but with half their votes. There was a
‘Ministers realise they are all in trouble’
moment of recognition. The hierarchy knew they are all losing their heads, even Ryan. He got out while the going was good.’
Prior to the local and European elections, Mr Ryan mapped out an ambitious plan targeting 10% of the national vote. He even made the far-fetched boast his party could take out the Healy-Rae
dynasty in their Kerry kingdom.
Instead, the party now has just 24 local councillors and no representation in Europe.
Meanwhile, as the party prepared to elect a new leader, sources this weekend expressed anger at deputy leader Catherine Martin over her decision not to enter the contest, while refusing to rule out a leadership bid after the general election.
Asked this week if she believed she would never be leader of the party, the Dublin Rathdown TD said: ‘Never say never and I’ve made it clear that it’s just at this point in time.’
Referring to Ms Martin’s decision to take on Mr Ryan after the 2020 election, when she narrowly lost by 944 votes (51.24%) to 946 (48.76%), one source noted: ‘Catherine has left a lot of people high and dry who backed her in 2020. If she doesn’t want to lead, why stay in Cabinet? There is a sense Catherine is being too cute; that she is leaving Roderic on a ledge.’
Another party figure added: ‘Catherine would be wise to learn that there are other options, such as Neasa Hourigan.
‘If a senator can contend for the leadership, why not one of the only TDs who has a real chance of retaining a Green seat?’