Why this wily Fine Gaeler is far more vital to their re-election than Enda Kenny
ON Sunday, December 20, 2009, the Irish Mail on Sunday ran the story that then-finance minister Brian Lenihan had undergone a hernia operation. The Department of Finance told me that he had undergone minor surgery.
Department sources said that he would return to the Mater Private Hospital on each of the next two days, Monday and Tuesday – which we pointed out was unusual.
We also told the readers that Mr Lenihan was being treated by Professor Gerry McEntee, who specialised in pancreas and liver problems.
Prof. McEntee, according to sources who were proved to be correct, was treating Mr Lenihan for cancer. But the department emphatically denied that and we didn’t publish that fact. Six days later, TV3 broke the story that Mr Lenihan had pancreatic cancer. He died 18 months later.
There may have been orders from political bosses. There may have been exemplary reasons. But a previous government misinformed us, and hence the public, about the health of the preceding minister for finance.
In contrast, current Finance Minister Michael Noonan has been very forthcoming about his cancer treatment. He recently told the Limerick Leader that he has received 25 radiotherapy sessions. He has also pledged to go on for two years. Fine Gael colleagues tell me he reassured department staff at drinks, two days before Christmas, that he intends to return after the general election as Minister for Finance.
THEN, over Christmas the 72-year-old returned to hospital for an operation on his lungs. Sources told us last week that Mr Noonan would be reappointed but replaced within 18 months. But that was a week ago. With the revelation that he has undergone surgery, some in Fine Gael are questioning whether it is credible for him to return as Minister for Finance. And that is legitimate.
Nobody knows better than Michael Noonan of the brutality of his profession.
Government colleagues tell me that Mr Noonan is more vital to reelection than Enda Kenny. He personifies the stability that the Government believes the public crave.
A colleague at the Department of Finance says that Mr Noonan’s political instincts are so finely honed that his confidence inspires all those working there. His resemblance to Winston Churchill is more than physical. With a lifetime of Cabinet experience, punctuated by a long period in the political wilderness, his political judgement is unrivalled by contemporaries. In the parliamentary party, TDs tell me, he is a calming and unifying presence.
His traumatic experiences as a failed leader of the party allow him to be uniquely empathetic to the Taoiseach. He has genuine friends in the parliamentary party in a way the Taoiseach doesn’t.
He and his Munster colleagues, Minister Tom Hayes, TDs John Deasy and Áine Collins among them, often meet for midweek drinks in Smyth’s of Haddington Row.
Yet the court he leads generates no suspicion, as Mr Noonan has no leadership ambitions.
Those being suggested by Fine Gael colleagues as inheritors of Mr Noonan’s position share that trait. Like Mr Noonan, they will have no immediate support for a leadership bid.
Paschal Donohoe was revealed by this column last week as a possible replacement. Paschal must, of course, come through a viciously competitive Dublin Central constituency. The boundary revisions have cleansed this north city centre constituency of middle class voters. Sinn Féin tells me it has conducted a poll. It shows Sinn Féin deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald topping the poll in the three-seater, followed by Independent Maureen O’Sullivan with Paschal taking the third seat.
If the changeover at Finance happens sooner it could mean a new role for Justice Minister Frances Fitzgerald, an arch loyalist of Mr Kenny’s, or Foreign Affairs Minister Charlie Flanagan.
ALL this speculation is based upon an assumption that the next Minister for Finance will be a Fine Gael minister. If Fine Gael enters coalition with Fianna Fáil, with Enda as Taoiseach, then surely Fianna Fáil will demand the Department of Finance? What a delicious development that would be.
It is also forgotten that the division of Finance into two departments only occurred in 2011. Perhaps, now that the economic crisis has dissipated, it will be reunified. This will further limit the options of Mr Kenny to give this role to a Fine Gael minister.
Those close to him predict Mr Noonan will return to Cabinet after his recent operation on January 5. There, he will crack a few jokes, give a sweeping assessment of the economic landscape and leave his colleagues revitalised.
However, he may not be up to the physical rigours of a general election campaign, which leaves Fine Gael in an odd situation.
The party’s plan is to hide their Taoiseach, and its Minister for Finance may not be able to participate fully in the campaign.
This is not a campaign plan that radiates stability and competence – the party will have to reassess its strategy.