Parties should take results as a warning against complacency

Conformity, they say, is the jailer of freedom. When it comes to second-guessing the voting intentions of the nation, this would seem to be the case. The consensus was that when the votes were counted, the established parties would take a hiding and Sinn Féin would be riding high.

But, as acknowledged by party leader Mary Lou McDonald: “It hasn’t been our day and frustration – anger, indeed – with government policy on this occasion has translated into votes for Independents and others.”

That is part of the story, but Sinn Féin overestimated its pulling power, fielding too many candidates who got in each other’s way at the polling stations.

It also underestimated the sophistication of voters. The party has been criticised for being “against everything” and “for nothing”. To be fair, as the main opposition, its prerogative is to come out fighting. However, championing change without explaining clearly how exactly it is going to achieve it or what it might look like seems to have been lost in translation.

Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Greens will be consoled that the Coalition has been given something of a reprieve, if not an endorsement.

Local elections are often regarded as the last check by parties before clearance for take-off for the general election. However, as many a political leader has learnt the hard way, the only thing that can safely be said about the future is that it will surprise us.

While Simon Harris, Micheál Martin and Eamon Ryan will all enjoy a measure of relief, they would be foolish to imagine anything is in the bag.

The centre has held, but fragmentation is here to stay, as evidenced by the strong showing of Independents. Issues such as housing, immigration and health are live and need to be engaged with far more effectively before indulging in any show of complacency or smugness. The Coalition cannot allow itself to be continually blinded to the potential for long-term progress because of the distraction of short-term difficulties.

Any temptation to think they can simply carry on regardless should be tempered by the sobering reality that while the surging Independents cannot be presented as a single force, if they were they would be one of the most significant in the country.

Many will also be relieved there has been no discernible swing to the far right.

As has been pointed out by several commentators, there has been much negativity – too much attention paid to the noise, as opposed to the signals being sent out by voters.

We have much to be grateful for and positive about, but it is also true that too many are still marginalised and left out of the picture.

That we have problems is very clear, but these results suggest voters will not be dazzled into believing in quick fixes.

However, they are also not prepared to accept inexcusable delays in finding solutions.

In the gap between expectations and trust in their fulfilment will the next election be fought and won.