HILL SEEKER
Familiar feel to inspire Scottie
MANY of the PGA Tour’s biggest stars return to action at this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational (API), another elevated event with a €19m prize fund.
Of the World’s top 50 stars, 44 are set to compete at Bay Hill in Florida, but wind is forecasted to be a big factor in Orlando this week.
The course will play tough, while lightning-fast greens and juicy rough will add to its difficulty.
Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year on a five-underpar total, one shot ahead of Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel and 2020 champion Tyrrell Hatton.
Scheffler will once again be joined in the field by Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy — regular combatants for that coveted World No.1 position, that McIlroy recently described as a “hot potato”.
Value
Scheffler regained that top spot with his recent victory at the WM Phoenix Open but Rahm reclaimed it with his win at the following week’s Genesis Invitational.
13/2 favourite Rahm has only played the API once — he was T-17th last year — so we are going to look for better value this week.
Scheffler is the outsider of the world’s top three golfers in the betting this week, at odds of 10/1, but for me makes the most appeal of that trio.
In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau won the API on an 11-under-par total, one shot ahead of Lee Westwood with Corey
Conners a further two shots back in third.
Tyrrell Hatton was the winner in 2020 on a four-under-par total by a single shot from Marc Leishman with Sungjae Im a further shot back in third. DeChambeau was fourth with Rory McIlroy among those tied for fifth place.
In 2019, Francesco Molinari fired in a superb closing round 64 to win on a 12-under-par total, two shots clear of Matthew Fitzpatrick with Tommy Fleetwood, Sungjae Im and Rafael Cabrera- Bello filling the places.
Defending champion on that occasion, Rory McIlroy, was a single shot outside the pay-out places.
Suited
McIlroy had won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2018 on an 18-underpar total, three shots clear of Bryson DeChambeau.
McIlroy also made the top five at the API in 2017 and has five other top 15’s here to his credit, so his game is clearly suited to the demands of Bay Hill.
However, he has finished well down the field in both of his last two starts and will need a big step up on recent form if he is to lift this trophy for a second time.
Im has played consistently well at Bay Hill, with a pair of top 5’s in his last four starts at this tournament. He was also T-20 th last year. Sungjae has been in decent form recently with a pair of top-six finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and the WM Phoenix Open, so it may be worth taking a chance on the South Korean to play well here again at the each way value at odds of 33/1.
Shane Lowry had a good week last week finishing T-5th at the Honda Classic and it could have been a lot better if he had holed a few more putts.
Lowry plays for a fourth week in a row but his record at Bay Hill would hardly encourage you to back him.
He has missed the cut on the past four occasions he has played here and has never broken 70 in any of his rounds on Bay Hill.
Improve
His overall scoring average is 73.75, so Shane will need to significantly improve those numbers if he is to be a contender this week. He is priced accordingly at odds of 66/1.
It’s worth noting that last week’s winner of the Honda Classic, Chris Kirk, was in the top five here last year and is priced at 80/1 to follow up.
Prior to that first win since 2015, Kirk had two top-three finishes at both the Sony Open and the American Express, so he might outplay his generous odds of 80/1.
Tyrrell Hatton won at Bay Hill in 2020 and was runner-up last year, so those form figures are the best in the field. He has been playing consistently well with three top-seven results in his last five starts, so Hatton also looks great each-way value at 40/1.
Meanwhile, Leona Maguire registered the first bogey-free event of her career over the three rounds at last week’s Honda Thailand LPGA event, in which she finished T-6th.
She now moves on to this HSBC Women’s World Championship at Sentosa Golf Club. Maguire was T-15th at this lucrative tournament last year and in such good form, she is worth backing in the each way markets at odds of 28/1.