€113BN ..THAT IS MY FINAL OFFER
»»Treasury gives forecast »»But no deal is €226bn Johnson’s TV snub
THERESA May claims she has negotiated the best Brexit deal for Britain – but her own Government has forecast it could have dire financial consequences.
The Treasury’s predictions under the scenario closest to her agreement suggest the UK economy would lose out on roughly €130billion by 2035.
It includes the €44billion divorce settlement and takes into account future savings from no longer paying into the EU.
Labour MP David Lammy, of the anti-brexit group Best for Britain, said: “These figures show the Government’s stated policy is to make our economy smaller and weaker. The Government are showing starkly that their decisions will make everyone poorer.” The analysis suggests a no-deal Brexit would result in a €226billion hit on Britain’s economy. Chancellor Philip Hammond said all possible Brexit outcomes would leave the UK worse off in economic terms. But he insisted Mrs May’s deal would keep the costs to a minimum, saying it “delivers an outcome that is very close to the economic benefits of remaining in”.
But former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said: “Politically, it looks like a rehash of Project Fear. People expect to be inspired, not scared witless into deferring to the Government.”
The Bank of England also issued a severe warning yesterday, saying that a no-deal exit could trigger a worse recession than during the 2008 financial crisis.
The Treasury’s analysis predicts that Prime Minister May’s deal could result in GDP being 3.9% lower by 2035 compared to what would have happened had the UK voted Remain.
This would be equivalent to €113billion to the economy.
While the economy would continue to grow, it would be at a slower rate than staying in the EU, the Treasury said.
Real wages would be 2.2% lower and every sector of the economy would suffer a plunge in trade, while the Budget deficit would soar by €30billion.
In th Commons, Mrs May dodged admitting the economy would be worse off compared with staying in the EU. She said: “What we have seen behind the analysis this morning is that our deal is the best deal for jobs and our economy.”
The Treasury analysis warned that if there were no deal and a sharp fall in EU workers then, in the worst case, the
SLATES THE GOVERNMENT
DOWNING Street has ruled out Boris Johnson appearing in a Brexit TV debate alongside Theresa May and
Jeremy Corbyn.
The ex-foreign Secretary demanded that an original Leave supporter feature.
A No 10 source said: “The Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition … represent roughly nine in 10 of the MPS in the House.” economy could shrink by as much as 10.7% over 15 years. Analysis suggests this would be equivalent to €226billion, with the North of England and Northern Ireland bearing the brunt.
It is predicted just 0.2% of GDP will be clawed back by even the most ambitious of global trade deals after leaving the EU. The Bank of England said a no-deal Brexit could cause a recession and trigger a surge in living costs – partly as a result of the pound slumping by 25%.
Governor Mark Carney said the UK is “not yet fully prepared for a cliff-edge Brexit”. The Confederation of British Industry chief economist Rain Newton-smith said yesterday: “It puts to bed some of the far-fetched ideas a hard-landing Brexit will not seriously hurt the economy.”
Their stated policy is to make our economy smaller and weaker LABOUR’S DAVID LAMMY