MURPHY’S LAW FOR LEO IN BY-ELECTION BOTHER

IRELAND’S loss is to be the world’s gain. Former housing minister Eoghan Murphy, pictured – the resigning Fine Gael TD for Dublin Bay South – is still young enough to have been able to anticipate a ministerial future, possibly as early as late next year when Leo Varadkar is due to resume as Taoiseach, but the idea doesn’t interest him, apparently. Instead, he wants to get back into ‘international politics’. Presumably, in an advisory rather than elected capacity. Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar was gracious in his public response to Murphy’s shock announcement. ‘I was aware for some time that Eoghan was considering his career options, although I had hoped that he would stay in the Dáil, given his abilities, flair and talents,’ he said.

The biggest hope was probably that he would hang on to avoid causing a by-election.

Varadkar now faces the possibility of Fine Gael losing the seat in a byelection and struggling to recover it in the four-seater constituency at the next general election.

He might have to go cap-in-hand to Kate O’Connell, a former TD who lost her seat in the constituency in February 2020.

Surely if Varadkar had known Murphy might bail he’d have picked O’Connell for Seanad Éireann, to provide a platform for her comeback. In a by-election that is likely to be largely made up of women, can he really be seen to pick a male councillor such as James Geoghegan instead?

Meanwhile, for Fianna Fáil, it won’t look good if its candidate gets a vote in keeping with opinion poll projections, and neither would it say much for the ambitious Jim O’Callaghan, given this is the possible future party leader’s constituency. If Fianna Fáil can’t get more than low single digits in his own backyard, what chance would it have in the rest of the country under his leadership?

Labour senator Ivana Bacik has the look of someone more suited to the rarified electorate of the Seanad than the Dáil where, despite her best efforts, she never wins.

Sinn Féin, with a big-name parachuted candidate such as Lynn Boylan perhaps, could have a shot, but surely wouldn’t be able to retain two of four seats at the next election, putting Chris Andrews at risk.

Green Party chair and Dublin Lord Mayor Hazel Chu may have cause to regret her recent unsuccessful Seanad run as it lost her support within the party. There are many for whom this by-election promises to provide some top-class entertainment. We can thank the departing Murphy for that at least.