IT’S NO WONDER LEO IS SMILING

Martin is gambling with the future of FF to finally become Taoiseach. It appears the Greens can’t help themselves but to scupper this historic coalition. And a poll puts Varadkar’s popularity at 75%

WHAT a difference an opinion poll makes… A draft Programme for Government was finally unveiled on Monday afternoon, paving the way for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to rotate out of office with a historic coalition formed.

Mr Varadkar appeared on the steps of Government Buildings shortly after the deal was finalised to take questions from the press pack. We had been waiting for an hour and a half for the privilege.

When he finally appeared, he was in a resigned and reflective mood. His final days had arrived.

‘Yeah I am [sad to leave office], you know, this, this isn’t about me. And, you know, anybody leaving the Taoiseach’s office is obviously going to feel a certain tinge of regret about that,’ he said.

He will also be moving out of Steward’s Lodge, on the Farmleigh Estate, where he and his partner Matt Barrett have been residing during the Covid-19 crisis. Lavish residences and holding the highest political office in the country aside, the Taoiseach was quick to point out: ‘But, you know, that’s not what’s important. What’s important is that we have a stable government for the country…’

ADAY later the soon-tobe-rotating Taoiseach bounced into the Italian Room in Government Buildings with a hop, skip and a jump. Overnight, an opinion poll in The Irish Times showed his personal approval rating was at a record 75%.

It was Bloomsday, the sun shone outside, he paraphrased Joyce and even made a self-deprecating joke about needing to fund the arts so he could continue to have people to quote in his speeches.

Not even the reminder that his much-loved Body & Soul music festival, scheduled for this weekend, had been added to the Covid casualty list could wipe the smile off his face.

He has every reason to smile. His party finished third in the general election, were destined for the Opposition benches, yet his political fortunes have turned around, and his position of strength has grown.

The opinion poll was shared in an internal Fine Gael WhatsApp group, which included a number of failed election candidates. ‘It’s not much good to me now,’ one member said plaintively in the group. While some in Fine Gael might feel frustrated about the concession on the pension age, which undoubtedly hampered their electoral success, the party is on a steady course. One that will, no doubt, see it regain the status of being the largest party in the country come the next election, the timing of which will never be too far away from the minds of those in the next government.

The Covid crisis presented Mr Varadkar with an unimaginable opportunity to save his political career. He grasped it, and his political career was resuscitated.

Despite all the hype surrounding Mr Varadkar in the lead-up to him assuming the office of Taoiseach, the ‘Leo bounce’ didn’t remain for too long. It had worn off so much by the time February’s election came around that he became the first Taoiseach not to top the poll in his constituency in a general election. He eventually got over the line on the fifth count and failed to bring in a running mate.

But during the pandemic he gave the public what they needed. Along with Minister for Health Simon Harris, he was forthright and provided the public with the assurance they needed.

While a cynic might argue he read from an autocue during a few television addresses and implemented public health advice almost in its entirety, it worked.

As things stand on the coalition formation front, the Greens are currently undergoing a major soul-searching operating, as various factions of the party question what their core values are.

The new influx of members into the party has placed housing at the core of the agenda for many. Negotiator and Dublin Central TD Neasa Hourigan is battling to keep the party out of government because the deal doesn’t go far enough on housing, among other things. It seems only yesterday that the only houses the Greens previously cared about were greenhouse gases.

Time will tell if they can move on in a united front, regardless of the outcome of the vote to enter government or not.

The division within Fianna Fáil, meanwhile, has widened with Micheál Martin’s chosen pathway to power. Whether he will continue to command control of the party amidst repeated batterings in the opinion polls remains to be seen.

A number of his TDs have raised questions about ‘identity’ in the next government – all eyes will be watching to see if they can secure the ministerial portfolios they desire to do this: Finance, Housing, Social Protection.

Amidst all the chaos the only clear winner is Leo – the opinion poll and autocue champion.

While joking that he has already given Micheál Martin some advice on being Taoiseach, he also said, of the forced marriage, that ‘we’re going to have to trust each other’. They may well be in government together, but they will never trust each other.

‘Leo, the wolf in sheep’s clothing,’ joked one Fianna Fáil TD when I asked him about Leo’s desire for trust this week.

THE election ‘plot’ in March, where officials in the Department of Local Government were drawing up contingency plans for an election, almost destabilised the negotiations process.

Fine Gael backbencher Frank Feighan spoke freely in the Dáil on Wednesday when he told Minister for Health Simon Harris: ‘Every night my wife sees him [Minister Harris] on the television and tells me how old he has got.

‘It makes me feel very good that he is at least 25 years younger than me.’

The intense paranoia that will besiege the Fianna Fáil psyche if this coalition is formed will no doubt significantly age their section of the Cabinet.

A Fianna Fáil veteran and open critic of their recent political pathway sounded the death knell for the party on RTÉ Radio. He predicted that there would again be two big, dominant parties in Irish politics, and Fianna Fáil would not be one of them.

His view is shared by a number of political scientists who view a polarisation of left and right politics in Ireland, with one big party on each side.

Mr Varadakar has managed to position himself to lead this charge by Fine Gael to consolidate the Fianna Fáil vote.

For such a seismic shift to happen between an election and the formation is extraordinary, and an opportunity his party will not want to let slip from its grasp.

Timing is everything: too soon and the public will punish them for collapsing a new government selfishly; too long and the opportunity will be missed.

One thing is for certain: the expected lifetime of this prospective government is shortening by the day.