THE SECOND THE WAVE!
ONCE upon a time, up to as recently as a year ago, this question would have drawn an instant, one-word answer: Dublin.
That conclusion can no longer be so easily reached.
Dublin used five replacements in the drawn final 13 days ago and only one of them, Kevin McManamon, had a significant impact.
And it wasn’t his typical intervention in a game, either. It was no barrelling run through exhausted defenders, but rather a touch to secure a turnover on David Moran when the Kerry midfielder tried to break through a thicket of Dublin players in the middle of the field. Otherwise, there was no telling influence wielded by the subs. Eoin Murchan replaced John Small in defence, a move designed to protect rather than create.
Paddy Small came on for the peripheral Michael Darragh Macauley and was loose in possession. Diarmuid Connolly came on and tried a Hollywood shot that went wide, while Cormac Costello’s most memorable intervention was having a point struck off by Hawkeye that should have been well within his ability to score.
Kerry got a much healthier bounce, most obviously through goal-scorer Killian Spillane, but also in Tommy Walsh creating a goal, scoring a point and missing another. Jack Sherwood brought aggression and mobility, to the extent that he is being touted for a starting place this evening.
That, though, was perhaps the trickiest conundrum for Jim Gavin and Peter Keane as they finalised their plans on Thursday night.
Strengthening the starting team is obviously important, but if that weakens the replacement options, especially in the closing stages, when a tight match is there to be won, and tired opponents give up more chances than in the first half, then the gains are minimal.
Walsh and Spillane gave Keane much to consider in that regard. There were calls for Walsh to start the drawn match, demands that have grown since.
‘Maybe he is that impact sub and he’s better coming off the bench, but I think both teams are going to put in something different next time,’ said Aidan O’Mahony earlier in the week. He made an important point: the temptation in both managements will be to seek out an advantage that throws the opposition.
Gavin has excellent form in this regard, making three changes to his team between the draw and replay in 2016. One of the players promoted for the second day, Michael Fitzsimons, was judged man of the match, while one of those demoted, Bernard Brogan, came on and kicked a point in a game Dublin won by one.
Another substitute, Costello, kicked three. Trying to be too smart in seeking to outwit Gavin is a danger Keane has to avoid. The experience Donie Buckley garnered with Mayo three years ago has, presumably, been helpful in that regard.
Starting Walsh could disrupt Gavin’s plans, and would necessitate a reshuffle in markers, with possibly Jonny Cooper redeployed from David Clifford.
But it comes with a significant chance of failure, given how proven the Dublin defenders are on big days and, just as relevant, given the minimal impact Walsh has had on Kerry football until recent weeks.
He looked a superstar a dozen years ago, but the years since have been scarred by serious injury as well as the Australian hiatus.
Good as he was last Sunday week, Keane has to wonder if that is enough evidence to be getting on with when it comes to choosing a forward line to defeat probably the best team of all time.
Rather, it would seem more judicious to try and provide David Clifford with enough ball to service his talent, because there is little possibility of him being as inaccurate as he was in the first half of the drawn match.
Keane has the luxury of trusting in Clifford and Paul Geaney causing Dublin problems, with Walsh, Spillane and perhaps even James O’Donoghue as auxiliaries in the second period. Introducing O’Donoghue to the 26 would constitute taking a chance, given his injury problems, but being radical with replacements rather than the starting team is surely a more attractive proposition for both managers.
Trying to be too radical with a starting team can backfire, as that 2016 replay showed. And if the dazzle of the Dublin substitutes is dulling somewhat, they still remain probably the most formidable back-up force in the game.
Claims that Kerry’s bench is more generously staffed with match-winners than Dublin’s are wholly unconvincing.
Connolly, McManamon and Costello are serial All-Ireland winners, and would be mainstays in practically every other team in the country, with the possible exception of Kerry.
But Gavin could also give his squad new vigour by making changes here. Connolly would be in America now but for a visa issue at Dublin Airport in June, and since his reintroduction he has not made a significant impression.
A blurry photo purporting to show the Dublin team submitted to Croke Park had Connolly placed at wing-back. The validity of the story must be doubted, even if such a switch would make some sense, given Brian Howard could be redeployed back there and Connolly moved up to the half-forward line.
But his attempt at a point from distance when he came on a fortnight ago, was untypical of this group, and Gavin would make a major statement if he omitted him from the 26 this time, in favour of someone like Bernard Brogan.
The latter has slipped to the edges of the Dublin story now, but, with five minutes to go in an All-Ireland final replay, he would have the instincts and the talent to kick a point from a tight spot.
Eoghan O’Gara, like Brogan, cut from the 26 for the first day, would bring a blunter and more obvious threat, but it has shown itself to be effective.
Yet, dispensing with Connolly’s lavish talent is a risk all of its own, too.
Both managers have matchwinners in their ranks. Now they have to decide how to use them, because it is entirely conceivable this All-Ireland will be won as evening gives way to night, with a sub making the telling impact.