‘No deal’ less likely as May gives vote to parliament
May offer of a vote on hard Brexit gets Irish thumbs-up
Markets breathed a sigh of relief
THE latest developments in the Brexit saga could make the threat of Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal less likely, senior Irish officials believe.
The demand from Britain’s Labour Party on Monday for a second referendum – although it is seen as an unlikely outcome – is thought to have strengthened the likelihood that the UK will now not leave without a deal.
And so too is prime minister Theresa May’s offer yesterday of a full House of Commons vote on the question of a no-deal departure, should it arise as a live possibility next month.
Mrs May yesterday bowed to intense political pressure and handed control of Brexit to the UK parliament, telling lawmakers they will get to choose between leaving the European Union on schedule – with or without a divorce deal – and asking the EU to postpone departure day.
Mrs May said that if parliament rejects her deal with the EU in a vote due by March 12, MPs will vote the next day on whether to leave the bloc without an agreement. If that is defeated, as seems likely, they will vote on whether to ask the EU to delay Brexit by up to three months.
Mrs May said the promises were ‘commitments I am making as prime minister and I will stick by them’.
Her pledge of a vote on no-deal coupled with Labour backing a second referendum on Brexit ‘would seem to make a no-deal scenario much less likely’, a key source indicated to political correspondents at Leinster House.
In particular, Mrs May’s latest gambit was being seen as ‘helpful’ in Dublin yesterday, as a senior source, speaking on condition of anonymity, declared: ‘A majority in the Commons is unlikely to vote for a no-deal scenario.
‘Therefore we see it as something of a barrier to a no-deal outcome, which nobody wants.’
The Government here is moving towards a preferred extension of Article 50 if there remains gridlock up to the 11th hour next month
‘Let’s see what they come looking for,’ said the senior source.
‘Ultimately we want a deal, but how we get there is a secondary consideration.’
The question of a second referendum is being played down, although officially regarded as ‘entirely a matter for Westminster’. No Irish adviser or strategist sees the potential plebiscite as worth the risk of an emphatic second Leave vote.
A spokesman for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said: ‘Our goal is to see a deal agreed. Short of the UK deciding to stay in the European Union, it’s the best outcome for Ireland.
‘In the absence of that, we are open to an extension of the Article 50 deadline in order to avoid a crash out on March 29. But we will still need to reach an agreement, whether or not an extension is in place.’ Speaking yesterday, Mrs May said her goal remains to lead Britain out of the EU on schedule and with a deal.
The markets breathed a sigh of relief at Mrs May’s statement, which did not rule out ‘no deal’ but at least pushed it a bit further away. The pound rose above $1.32, its highest level for a month.
But many lawmakers pointed out that British politics remains deadlocked over Brexit, with both the Tories and Labour still deeply split on the issue. Mrs May’s concession to parliament came ahead of a series of votes today in which pro-EU MPs planned to try to force the government to rule out a no-deal Brexit.