Leo and Micheál locked in a game of cat and mouse
Naughten was dispatched in as fast a speed as one would wish from a broadband router
IN recent times, I’ve held the view that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was just waiting for the right opportunity, politically, to cut and run to the country. Most recent polls have confirmed my view that Fine Gael is in the ascendancy over its main rival, Fianna Fáil.
I thought, last week, after the surprise resignation of Denis Naughten as a minister, that the Taoiseach would only be too delighted to draw the curtains on this crumbling Government.
For me, the only thing stopping him was the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Indeed, Micheál Martin probably was of the same opinion as me, because why, otherwise, would he come up with his letter seeking Varadkar’s agreement that neither would precipitate an election before the EU and the UK had approved any prospective agreement on Brexit.
Martin must have smelled a political rat in that the Taoiseach didn’t seem to be too exercised about Naughten’s travails. The Taoiseach hardly put up a token fight for Naughten, who, it has to be said, hadn’t helped himself with his obfuscation. Even still, Naughten was dispatched in as fast a speed as one would want from their broadband router.
Genuinely, the combined Opposition would have wished to extend Naughten’s, and the Government’s, discomfiture for a few more weeks. But the speed of events, and the lack of support for Naughten, sent a signal, especially after a reasonably politically astute budget. It posted a clear message that we are on election footing.
Martin’s letter was the modern day equivalent of Gerry Collins’s famous plea: ‘Don’t burst the party.’ In this case, don’t burst this new politics shenanigans!
Naturally, going on the polls, Martin has more to lose, but, as always, in these type of circumstances, the voters will take it out on whoever they feel unnecessarily caused the election.
ONCE the budget was done and dusted, the two main leaders started their courtship of each other. Varadkar wanted the renewal talks completed by Halloween, but Martin was having none of it. Fianna Fáil wanted a ‘full’ review, which immediately raised a prospect of the Government being strung out, albeit in a much weakened position, not having any indication of any decent timescale.
No government would want to be put in a position whereby it cannot plan from one week to the next. At least, with the Confidence and Supply agreement in place, this Government is in a position, with some certainty, to plan initiatives, knowing that it has a good chance of blaming Fianna Fáil in the event of a political crisis causing an election.
The ‘full’ review being called for by Martin must raise huge doubts in Fine Gael as to whether it can be the author of its own destiny. After two and a half years of the Fianna Fáil/Greens administration, we had a ‘full’ review of the programme originally agreed between the two parties at the start of that government.
Noel Dempsey, Mary Hanafin, and myself were mandated to sit down with our Green counterparts to review the progress of our programme for government. To say the least, it was one of the most frustrating political experiences I was ever involved in.
It took 80 torturous hours of negotiations to complete the review. At one stage, half joking, half in earnest, I pleaded with my colleagues that we just pull the plug on the government rather than continue with the interminable meetings. If the review due to be held on the Confidence and Supply agreement is anything like that experience, I’ve no doubt the participants will want to advise their masters to go to the country. Varadkar will not have any truck with delays, because he knows that the longer the Government limps along, the more likely its poll ratings will slide southwards.
Martin, given Fianna Fáil’s becalmed poll ratings, clearly wants to play a ‘long game’. He has two possibilities to achieve this. His plea to Brexit-proof the lifetime of this Government is fraught with all sorts of difficulties. In effect, asking that the plug is not pulled on the Government until a Brexit deal is approved by the EU and the UK is making our political landscape here dependent on the decisions taken in Brussels and in Westminster.
Given the dysfunctional nature of Westminster politics, how can anyone expect the politicians there to approve any proposed deal. A ‘bust-up’ over what’s on the table and a subsequent election there is a much more likely scenario. That will scupper any desire by Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil to maintain the status quo here.
I’ve said it from the very start of Brexit, that whatever might be agreed at official level, it is only when any draft agreement drops on the table of the political leaders in Europe, and in the UK, that we will know for certain whether any proposals to sort out this debacle will fly.
Given that we hear more and more these days that the negotiations ‘need more time’, we can take it that this Brexit conundrum will be strung out further and further. Again, where that leaves the continuity, or otherwise, of this current Government, remains to be seen.
Martin’s other play is to string out the review negotiations. Without Brexit difficulties on the horizon, I’m sure that Varadkar would have been much more assertive in his discussions with Martin. I’ve no doubt he’d declare that unless the discussions were finalised by a certain date, he’d have no alternative but to go to the country.
The next few months will be a game of cat and mouse. Whoever blinks first between Varadkar and Martin may very well rue their decision. Their political futures will be determined by how they handle these troubled waters.