Sorry, Boris, but the UK can’t dodge its massive Brexit bill
THIS week in the House of Commons, the ever-colourful British foreign secretary Boris Johnson stated that the EU could ‘go whistle’ for the money that they are due to pay the EU, after Brexit. It is being suggested that €100billion will be the final bill to be paid by the UK to fulfil its existing commitments. Johnson stated that this was ‘extortionate’.
The Brexit secretary, David Davis was somewhat more measured when he stated that the UK would not pay any more than it need to when settling the bill.
One way or the other, the UK will be required to pay a substantial amount of money to the EU to clear its debt up to the date of leaving.
The EU has been firm in its public statements regarding what it sees as the UK’s obligations to pay what it owes. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator on Brexit, was at his imperious best when he responded to Johnson’s ‘go whistle’ remark by saying: ‘I hear no whistling, just a clock ticking.’ He added that he could not imagine ‘this great country’ not honouring its obligations.
I have always believed that the so-called divorce settlement between the UK and the EU will turn out to be one of the most contentious issues to be decided.
Leading political figures such as Boris Johnson have led British voters to believe they will not be required to pay a penny as they exit the EU. His injudicious ‘go whistle’ remark will come back to haunt Theresa May’s government. The British media will have a field day when the final bill is agreed and the May government has to hand over the loot.
PAYMENTS from the UK as a net contributor to the EU over the years have helped to fund the various EU programmes which have been designed to raise the standard of living in those EU member states that are below the European average. After the UK leaves, its overall monetary contribution to the EU will be badly missed. In 2015/16, its net public sector contribution to the EU was an estimated £10.8billion. Obviously, this will leave a large hole in the EU annual budget of over €150 billion. The EU would be obliged to either trim its budget, or alternatively, ask the net contributing countries, including Ireland, to increase their annual payment.
Barnier was clearly expressing his frustration at the lack of a detailed position on key issues from the UK. It seems that the only real position the UK has adopted, so far, is on the issue of reciprocal rights between EU and British citizens living across Europe. Even this proposal, from May’s government, has underwhelmed the EU mandarins. Somewhat worryingly, David Davis, referring to discussions regarding possible customs controls on the border, stated that the work on this had been ‘slightly stymied’ by the change of taoiseach and the Irish Cabinet reshuffle. He went on to say that he had just met new Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney and that ‘we started that discussion again, as it were, from scratch’. Surely this work on the practical details of customs controls is being dealt with at official level? I wonder did Davis let the cat out of the bag by, in effect, admitting that little or no discussion on these issues has taken place to date.
The publication of the so-called Great Repeal Bill this week, in Westminster, only underlines the scale of the task ahead, both in the UK and in the EU, when it comes to unravelling the thousands and thousands of regulations and pieces of legislation required. The devolved governments of Scotland and Wales have stated that they see this Bill as a power grab, in that Westminster can modify the EU laws as they are being transposed into British law. Unfortunately, nobody is speaking on behalf of the people of Northern Ireland in this regard at the moment.
Given the seemingly snail’s pace of the negotiations, I cannot see hard decisions on Brexit being made by the deadline of the March 29, 2019. Knowing a little bit about how the EU negotiates, I would hazard a guess that we will begin to hear a lot more about ‘transitional arrangements’ between now and March 2019.
No matter what, I cannot see the UK falling off the EU cliff. I have a good suspicion that the UK will still be in the EU, perhaps in a modified state, for a good many years to come. Potentially, there will be much benefit for Ireland if transitional arrangements can soften Brexit. Maybe, just maybe, by making the UK’s exit from the EU a ‘long goodbye’, the British people might have an opportunity to have second thoughts about their disastrous decision.