WILL CORBYN STILL FACE CIVIL WAR IN LABOUR DESPITE LATE POLL SURGE?
BRITAIN’S Labour Party may yet face a bout of civil war even though Jeremy Corbyn surprised observers with his success in getting his party’s message across.
Rebels on the Commons benches had insisted before the election he should step down however the party fared.
Labour racked up 30.4% of the vote in 2015 – and polls right up to yesterday indicated the party could be on track to top that this time.
In 1987, Neil Kinnock also fought a highly-regarded campaign and did not resign after handing Margaret Thatcher a three-figure majority.
Last month one pro-Corbyn source said: ‘There is a tradition of Labour leaders staying on after elections. Kinnock didn’t resign in ’87, Callaghan didn’t in ’79.’
But only last year, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell said he and Mr Corbyn would definitely have to go if they lost an election. ‘That would be inevitable,’ he told BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show.
Critics of the Labour leader point out that his predecessors – including Gordon Brown, Ed Miliband and Michael Foot – did resign after defeats. And James Callaghan was gone within the year.
However, it was unclear what form any opposition to Mr Corbyn would take if he refused to step aside, as critics are divided as to the best course.
Blairites had been plotting the formation of a new centre party if he clung on, perhaps in alliance with the Liberal Democrats.
But that idea may be put on the back burner given Labour’s successful campaign.
Mr Corbyn could still face a fresh leadership challenge, perhaps from a senior figure from the old regime such as Yvette Cooper or Chuka Umunna. Any challenger would need to get the names of 20% of Labour MPs and MEPs to be able to stand against Mr Corbyn and force a leadership battle. He would automatically get his name on the ballot paper, and the party membership would get their chance to vote.
But the 68-year-old could decide to stand aside in the hope of passing on the baton to an acolyte. If he does this, there would be an open contest and candidates would need to get the votes of 15% of MPs and MEPs before going forward to the membership. This threshold would make it hard for a Left-wing candidate to get past the first hurdle. It is for this reason that Corbyn supporters are urging him to hang on to make certain a hard-Left candidate – himself – is put forward to the membership.
Former shadow home secretary Ms Cooper stood in the 2015 Labour leadership contest, coming third to Mr Corbyn.
The other candidates were centrist Liz Kendall and Andy Burnham, who has since left the Commons to become Greater Manchester’s mayor.
Mr Umunna, Labour’s former business spokesman, originally said he was going to stand but pulled out within a few days.
But there is the chance that if Mr Corbyn stays on, arguing he has fought a successful campaign, support for a leadership challenge at this juncture could fade away.
Some senior figures are counselling that any leadership challenge should be put off for a year.
There is also the chance that former shadow ministers who vacated the frontbench after Mr Corbyn took office could return. Many of his union allies, such as Unite’s Len McCluskey, have vowed to stick by him. The support of more moderate unions may depend on last night’s result.
Mr Corbyn voted early yesterday at Pakeman Primary School in Holloway, North London. As he emerged from the polling station, he told reporters gathered outside: ‘I’m very proud of our campaign.’
And if the exit polls are correct, Mr Corbyn surely won’t be going anywhere.