The Indian Express (Delhi Edition)
‘ India has to help in restoration of peace in the Middle East, keep channels open’
Navtej Sarna, former Ambassador of India to Israel and the US, on the likely direction of the war in Gaza, Hamas’s position in the Palestinian movement, Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu and the effects on India. The session was moderated by Shubhajit Roy, Diplomatic Editor
On where the war in Gaza is headed
Just as we begin to think that we are heading towards closure, something new and rougher happens. Israel’s reaction is maximalist — it will not stop until Hamas is destroyed. It has been the driving force for Israel because it feels threatened and vulnerable. But that is easier said than done. We have seen months of relentless bombing, and thousands of deaths, including disproportionately large numbers of civilians in Gaza. You can begin to think of the day- after once you know when the day is.
There are disagreements in the war Cabinet of Israel. ( Defence Minister) Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz ( who has since quit) differ with Bibi Netanyahu on the endgame. When is there going to be a ceasefire? Will Gaza be occupied? I am afraid there is no daylight in sight.
On Hamas and the Palestinian movement
Hamas is an Islamist resistance group that has been around since the 1980s as part of the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. It has both a political and a military dimension. It won an election in Gaza against its rival Fatah and, before the war, virtually ruled Gaza within the constraints imposed by the Israeli blockade.
Hamas has been funded by Iran but also by other countries, for instance, Qatar. A lot of the funds from Qatar have been actually funneled through Israel to Hamas and gone into building military infrastructure. Netanyahu kept Hamas going because that divided Hamas and Fatah, Gaza and the West Bank, and gave him the opportunity to tell the world, ‘ How do I talk peace with the Palestinians? There is nobody to talk to.’
There have been various theories as to why Hamas chose that moment ( October 7, 2023) to attack. The US has taken its eye off the IsraelPalestinian peace process for several years now. President Joe Biden has worked on an outsidein approach — let’s normalise Israel- Saudi Arabia, let’s normalise Israel- UAE, Bahrain, stress on economic development, and the Palestinian problem will either go away or get minimised. But this was an illusion. One belief is that Hamas decided to become the flagbearer of Palestinian resistance — since Fatah or the Palestinian Authority had become so weak an reportedly so corrupt that it lost the people’s trust and was seen as contractors of the Israeli state.
Second, there was a lot of provocation from the Israeli extreme right- wing government, the partners of Netanyahu, over the years. For months, there were protests over Netanyahu’s judicial reforms. Israeli society, polity and the defence forces were divided. Hamas chose that moment. It was a barbaric attack that set off the chain of events.
On international response to Israel
Because of the barbaric nature of the attack, there was a huge wave of sympathy and support. Before October 7, Israel had established relationships and new partnerships with many countries within the Middle East. There was a lot of hope, and broadly an acceptance ( of Israel).
Unfortunately, Israel thought the only way it could get Hamas was to pummel Gaza into rubble. Given the topography, population density, and the fact that Gaza is closed, people had nowhere to flee. One estimate says that the total tonnage of bombs dropped on Gaza was like three nuclear bombs. The Israelis claimed the civilian casualties were necessary to get to Hamas, who were in the tunnels. But then the jury came out on whether this crosses Geneva Convention definitions of proportionality in terms of loss of civilian life, dualuse targeting, targeting of humanity. And the support for Israel began to unravel. A peak was reached when South Africa approached the ICJ, which decided that some elements could be amounting to genocide — something Israel reacted strongly to.
There has been a division within the US and the Democratic Party, increased campus protests, a division in Europe and now three countries have recognised the state of Palestine. There is a discontent appearing in parts of the global South because they see differentiated reaction from the West on Ukraine and Gaza. This has been a diplomatic debacle for Israel. There has been a degradation of Israel’s international standing.
On Israel’s PM Netanyahu
All indications are that if and when this war ends and there is a change of government, Netanyahu’s political career will come to an end at the very least. Of course, he also faces legal consequences of the cases that he is involved in. Netanyahu is supposed to be the person who has many lives but I am afraid that there will be a lot of anger within Israel and the rest of the world. One of the reasons he doesn’t want to go in for a ceasefire and a hostage deal is because this is the one way of personal survival. As long as the country is at war, he can carry on doing what he can. But I don’t think Israel will mind if his political career comes to an end ultimately.
On how this situation impacts India
If there is instability in the Middle East, it has obvious implications for India. If there is instability between Israel and Iran, if the Houthis are attacking ships in the Red Sea, it has implications for us. Conflict is not in our interest. India has to take care of its interests, and contribute towards the restoration of peace and security. Much of it is now beyond any one country’s doing... We have to keep our channels open with everybody there.
On US politics and the course of the war
US President Biden, who is a great supporter of Israel, came out in full support after October 7. He visited Israel, gave Bibi a bear hug and while one of his intentions was to try to slow down the ground invasion, he expressed full support for Israel, even in terms of arms and ammunition, military subsidies and so on. But as the civilian toll has risen in Gaza, that has begun to become a debatable approach in the US. There’s a view that Biden should have called Netanyahu to order much earlier.
If Donald Trump is back in the White House, it’s going to be a great mix of chaos, transactionalism and opportunism. He was close to Netanyahu. But was unhappy with him because Netanyahu congratulated Biden on the election when Trump said the election had been stolen. He has supported Israel and yet he is saying, ‘ okay, hurry up and finish the war; you’re killing too many people.’
We don’t know where he stands. He hasn’t come out on critical issues like hostages, ceasefire, the day- after in Gaza... ( But) he was the one who started this whole talk on normalisation ( between Israel and the Arab world). How he reacts if he comes to the White House, what stage the war will be then, will depend on many things.
On the two- state solution and its future
This two- state solution was almost buried and now it has been exhumed. This is unfortunate because if you go back to the Peel Commission of 1937 or the UN Partition Plan or the UN resolution 181 or the Oslo process, this seems to have been the only solution.
Through the years, countries, the UN have paid lip service to the two- state solution. Things have happened that have made the two- state solution impossible — whether it’s a weak and allegedly corrupt Palestinian Authority, the division between Hamas and Fatah or the intense settler activity in the West Bank that is taking away from the concept of land for peace. All this, coupled with the move towards the Right in Israel politics over the last 10- 15 years and the sidelining of the Israeli Left, means there has been no movement towards the two- state solution.
After this conflict, it has become a rhetorical push again. At present, the Israelis are in no mood to have a Palestinian state on their border. And the Palestinians are not convinced about anybody who can deliver this two- state solution to them, because they feel as vulnerable about Israel being in the neighbourhood as the Israelis are about Palestinians. It’s a good thing to keep it as a long- term aspiration but I would not hold my breath that this is going to happen very quickly.
This is an edited transcript of the conversation held online before developments in Israel, Gaza, Iran and the US