Indian upper caste and its bias towards the ruling party

UP elections in the recent past have been the most bitterly fought elections. The BJP, despite being led by two Hindutva icons, Modi and Yogi, was nervous to start with and till the results were not out, they were not sure of retaining power. Akhilesh Yadav had emerged as a very serious challenger. He drew a huge crowd, the energy that was witnessed in his public rallies was missing in Modi and Yogi’s meetings. Not many were willing to cast their vote in either’s favour. The elections were being considered one that would have a photo-finish. The result could go either way. Though the final result proved that it was not so close. An 8% vote share separated the two in favour of BJP and the BJP alliance has more than double the seats in the assembly. But, the finer points need to be studied carefully.

There is no denying the fact that the upper caste, the harbinger of Hindutva politics, today is more robustly aligned than ever with the BJP. According to CSDS - Lokniti post-poll survey, the upper caste consolidation is on average more than 85% which is a huge number. If 89% Brahmins had voted for BJP, then 87% Rajputs and 83% Vaishya preferred the Hindutva party. Even the other upper caste number is 78%. Before the electoral process began it was speculated that the Brahmins were very upset with the Yogi Government. Though Yogi has taken sanyas and is the Peethadhiswar of Gorakhnath Temple, he was accused of bias towards his caste clan — the Rajputs, and Brahmins felt discriminated by his administration. The so-called encounter of Brahmin gangster Vikas Dubey had further fuelled the debate. But the data tells a different story.

If the voting behaviour of Brahmins in two assembly elections that is 2017 and 2022, is compared then it is apparent that despite their anger with the Yogi government, 6% more Brahmins voted for the BJP in 2022. It is the same story with Rajputs and Vaishya. This time, an additional 17% of Rajputs and 12% of Vaishya have voted for the BJP. Even other upper castes have also increased their vote share to 78%. This shows that the upper caste despite a rampant price rise, unemployment and the issue of wandering animals/ cattle are more united than ever with the BJP. This proves two things - one, the upper caste believes that the BJP is the only party that can help them carry forward their sociopolitical-bureaucratic hegemony; this was the class that with the emergence of the Mandal politics, felt threatened and insecure. Secondly, this also hints at the premise that five years of the Yogi government has given them the confidence that only the BJP led by Yogi can seek justice from history for them vis a vis Muslims. A large section of the upper caste under the spell of the RSS propaganda believes that Muslims have been their oppressors and the BJP offers them solace.

But due to historical reasons, backward castes and Dalits were not enamoured with the concept of Hindu Unity. In fact, within the civilisational milieu they feel discriminated against by the upper caste and after independence, even in the democratic setup were denied their share in the power. Ram Manohar Lohia and Baba Saheb Ambedkar were at the forefront to demand their participation in the power structure according to their numerical strength. But, the implementation of 27% reservation in the government jobs by V.P. Singh proved to be the turning point. It unleashed new energy; Mandal politics took a definite shape, particularly in UP and Bihar.

In 2017, BJP leader Keshav Prasad Maurya, a backward leader, was denied his legitimate claim to the Chief Minister seat, and the illtreatment during the Yogi government hastened the process. The accusation of ‘thakurvad’ on Yogi added salt to the wound. Modi sensed this and that is why he tried to replace Yogi with a new leader. After failing to do so, he worked on the contingency plan. Modi performed a massive cabinet reshuffle. Out of 43 new ministers who took an oath, 14 were OBCs and 9 were Dalits. It was widely publicised that overall 27 OBCs and 12 Dalits were given representation in the cabinet. Even Yogi was also asked to rejig his cabinet. He added 7 new ministers out of which 3 were from the backward community, 2 Dalits, and 1 from the tribal community.

Undoubtedly, BJP managed to arrest the drift up to a certain extent, but it failed to attract fresh talent from the OBCs. On the contrary, an opposite movement was witnessed. Prominent leaders and parties like Om Prakash Rajbhar, Swami Prasad Maurya, Dharam Singh Saini, Dara Singh Chauhan, Ram Achal Rajbhar, Lalji Verma, Apna Dal (Kameravadi), Janwadi Socialist Party, and Mahan Dal aligned with the Samajwadi Party. As a result, just like with the upper caste, OBC voters did not show undue interest in BJP. If Kurmi, Koeri, Maurya, Kushwaha, Saini, and other OBCs marginally voted more for the BJP than Kewat, Kashyap, Mallah, Nishad’s vote share for the BJP dropped too. If the CSDS-Lokniti survey is to be believed then the OBCs vote share for the Samajwadi party; the 2017 elections have shown an overall increase. Despite traditional antagonism between the OBCs and Dalits, a section of Dalits too have shown a positive inclination for the SP.

For BJP to have maintained more or less its OBC and Dalit voters the Labharthi Yojna should be given the credit more than the Hindutva polarisation. Of course, Yogi spoke about ‘Jinnah’, ‘Abbajan’ and ‘80 versus 20’, Keshav Maurya spoke about ‘Jalidar Topi’ and raised the issue of Krishna Janma Bhumi in the initial stages of the campaigning but later shifted to the issue of law and order and camouflaged it with Muslims and Yadavs. Still, it is too early to say that Hindutva is losing ‘majorly’ its charm with a section of the Mandal voters. The increase in the OBC and Dalit numbers for SP is an indicator for the BJP to fine-tune its future electoral strategy.