Diplomatic coup that overcomes the past
The UAE has been swift and ruthless in keeping Islamic terror off its soil, and the recent bloodlust in the Middle East has only strengthened the regime’s resolve towards a more pragmatic outlook that no longer falls for the vacuous charm of Pakistan’s pe
Strategic shift in alignment of India’s evolution on the global stage
UAE is arguably the second most important Arab country, after Saudi Arabia. Unlike, most of the ummah which is embroiled in internal fissures and strife that manifested in the failed ‘Arab Spring’, the moderate and economically progressive Sheikhdom of UAE has bucked the trend. Even as the debt-laden Dubai model (ruled by the Al Makhtoum family) went belly up and the palace intrigues settled in favour of Abu Dhabi (Al Nahayan family), the fundamental UAE narrative of an influential ‘soft power’, remained unchanged. Jointly, the UAE has the largest sovereign funds in the world (estimated at over $1000 billion), and it is the rare beneficiary of the US trust with the signing of the US–UAE 123 Agreement for Peaceful Civilian Nuclear Energy Cooperation.
Pakistan, too, shares a fraternally powerful relationship with UAE. Symbolically, Pakistan was the first country to recognise the state of UAE in 1971, and since then has benefitted with UAE echoing the Pakistani line on Kashmir in the OIC forums, gaining invaluable petrodollars directly, or indirectly through remittances made by over 1.2 million Pakistani expatriates in UAE. The Sheikh Zayed International Airport at Rahimyar Khan, Sheikh Zayed hospital in Lahore, and the ‘UAE Project to Assist Pakistan’ (UAE PAP) are recent symbols of UAE’S financial benevolence towards Pakistan. This declared ‘special relationship’ extended beyond the commercial domain with the Pakistani military training the UAE Defence Forces, UAE leasing the Shamsi Airfield in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, besides partaking sensitive moves like recruiting former Pakistani spymaster, Lt General Shuja Pasha (retired ISI chief) to head the UAE Secret Agency.
However, UAE is a practical oddity amongst the Arab nations. It hosts a large Iranian expatriate community in Dubai, and unlike Saudi Arabia, UAE exhibits no overtly demonstrated vitriol against Iran (passive dispute over three islands, notwithstanding). Even though it does not recognise Israel, unlike other Arab countries, Jewish expatriates and Israeli’s with dual citizenship are allowed into UAE. The UAE royalty is a frequent invitee to the US Presidential retreat, Camp David. All in all, mercantile prudence and geopolitical sensitivities have ensured that UAE routinely shuns the puritanical traits and adopts prudent policies that are in consonance with the times. This deft balancing of conventional Arab sensitivities and the extended global community, results in the dexterous management of both Pakistani and Indian sentiments, albeit earlier, diplomatically tilted in favour of Pakistan.
Today, the economically emerging India, global war on terror and its confirmed progenitors along with the accom- panying repercussions have seen the UAE correct the bias in the Indo-pak equation. The successful visit by the PM Narendra Modi in 2015 resulted in the barely concealing shift with the joint statement toeing the Delhi line by stating that they, “condemn efforts, including by states, to use religion to justify, support and sponsor terrorism against other countries” and called on nations to “dismantle terrorism infrastructure where they exist and bring perpetrators of terrorism to justice”. Ironically, just last month members of the UAE royal family, including the Deputy Prime Minister Prince Sheikh Saif Bin Al Nahayan, had a narrow escape with terror in Pakistan, when their cavalcade was brutally attacked in Guchak area by Baloch rebels, whilst, on a Houbara game hunt. The UAE has been swift and ruthless in keeping Islamic terror off its soil, and the recent bloodlust in the Middle East has only strengthened the regime’s resolve towards a more pragmatic outlook that no longer falls for the vacuous charm of Pakistan’s persistent claim, as a ‘brother Muslim’ country.
Now, the strategic import and optics of the second-visit-within-a-year, of the Crown Prince and the Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of UAE, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al-nahyan, as the Chief Guest at the 68th Republic Day is, yet another unmistakable signal of the shifting sands towards India’s relevance at the global stage. The Republic Day proceedings were initiated with the poignant Ashok Chakra ceremony for the Braveheart, Havaldar Hangpan Dada for ‘killing four terrorists who had infiltrated South Kashmir’, with the UAE royalty in the Presidential box, symbolic acquiescence of India’s stand on Kashmir. The comfortable dichotomy inherent in the joint presence of the UAE marching contingent, along with Indian military muscularity that is increasingly powered by Israeli wares – Tejas (with AESA radar), Jaguars (with listening pods) etc. The reality of India as the largest buyer of Israeli military equipment and Israel emerging as the second biggest arms supplier for India mattered little, as the old hyphenated hang-ups of the past were given a royal miss. On the contrary, the more real threat like the recent terror attack in Kandahar which killed five UAE diplomats, with the inevitable shadow of the Haqqani network-isi looming all over it, spurs UAE away from the blind rationale of supporting a country on the sole basis of religious affinity.
The unequivocal phrasing of the latest Uae-india joint-statement nails the patented Pakistani bogey of ‘nonstate actors’, when it captures without mentioning Pakistan, “….deplored efforts by countries to give religious and sectarian colour to political issues and pointed out the responsibility of all states to control the activities of the so-called nonstate-actors”. With India, the talk revolves around increasing the existing $50 Billion mutual trade to $100 Billion by 2020, a language of engagement that is strategically progressive and not mired in the regressively narrow delusionment of co-religionism.
The breaking of protocol to court UAE with the Indian PM personally receiving the guests at the airport, extending the red carpet (unprecedentedly, to a Non-head of State), is a laudable punt and reflective of India’s diplomatic march over its immediate neighbour, at multi-levels. This diplomatic coup follows the previous year’s dignitary in Barack Obama, who too, like UAE, cannot candidly express their opinion on Pakistan given the historical and existing stakes involved, yet, chose to symbolically assert their future course of strategic direction by gracing moments that exemplify, everything that India stands for!
Lt General Bhopinder Singh (Retired) is former Lt Governor of Andaman and Nicobar Islands & Puducherry. The views expressed are strictly personal.