TRUMP’S NEW YEAR GIFT TO CHINA

The violent assault on the iconic American Capitol building by a marauding pro-Trump mob extinguished whatever little glow was left of the shining City on the Hill. The vulgar images of the ugly desecration of the citadel of American democracy will remain seared in the memories of both Americans and people across the world. A future historian may well mark this as an inflection point in America’s decline as a great power on the geopolitical stage. This is bad news for those who still rely on the US to enable a credible coalition to restrain a China which believes its own moment in the sun has arrived; that it is the new shining City on the Hill in the 21st century.

The terrible events of January 6 may have roused the concerns of a majority of Americans, creating a more favourable setting for the incoming Biden administration to take the country towards reconciliation and renewal. But even in this unprecedented crisis, what is noteworthy is how roughly 40 per cent of the US public and a majority of its White population continue to believe that the election was stolen from Trump, that Biden will be presiding over an illegitimate government. Those in the Senate who turned against Trump in the aftermath of the riot were branded as traitors. There was a viral clip of Republican senator Lindsay Graham being surrounded by a group of White travellers at Washington airport who reviled him as a turncoat and traitor. All because he had refused to support an overturning of the electoral verdict in favour of Biden.

The divisions in American society run very deep and it is unlikely that a slowing economy and an expanding public health crisis will enable the healing touch Biden wishes to apply to a fractured polity. A sizeable chunk of American society feels alienated, disempowered and victimised despite being privileged in many other ways. Racism runs deep in America and was also on display during the Capitol assault. The police handled the rioters with kid gloves, some even took selfies with them and refrained from using the violent means that are routinely deployed against non-White demonstrators and protesters. It’s unlikely that the faultlines on display will be overcome in the foreseeable future.

Given the domestic preoccupations of the Biden regime, the US is likely to have a narrower bandwidth available to deal with a complex international agenda. Biden has assembled a very professional and experienced foreign policy and national security team and this is reassuring. But the team has its work cut out simply to repair the damage done to the international reputation and standing of the US under Trump. The stress will be on salvaging rather than enabling the US to take a leadership role in what will be a more contested geopolitical landscape. Much will also depend on how quickly Biden is able to bring the raging pandemic under control and set the US economy on a path of recovery and renewal. The US remains the knowledge capital of the world and its entrepreneurial energies are unmatched. But it needs to come up with a strategy to leverage these assets to compete effectively with an ascendant China which now enjoys a distinct edge thanks to the display of incompetence and divisions during the Trump years.

What this means for India is facing up to the reality of a Chinese power less constrained than ever before and even more convinced that it has a historic opportunity to remake the world to suit its own interests. There may be greater risk of war as China moves to forcibly unify with Taiwan and perhaps increase the military pressures on its borders with India. It may well believe that this is an opportunity to finally restore all the borders it historically claims. Accomplishing this in the 100th anniversary year of the Chinese Communist Party would further consolidate Xi Jinping’s unquestioned leadership. We are in for a bumpy ride ahead. ■

With America’s geopolitical clout in doubt, India will now face a less restrained China, one which wants to remake the world to suit its own interests

Shyam Saran is a former foreign secretary and a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, Delhi