THE MAN OF THE MOMENT
What is the secret behind the unwavering popularity of the prime minister at a time when the nation is riddled with multiple crises?
Nothing—not Covid, not economic distress, nor border incursions— seems to sway the electorate’s unwavering faith in the leadership of Narendra Modi
There is not a single head of state in the world whose leadership has not been tested by the Covid-19 pandemic. Confronted with a crisis of unparalleled magnitude, these leaders will either make or break their reputations on their ability to successfully guide their nations through these troubled times. As the US civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr once said, “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in the moments of comfort, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.”
The burden weighs even more heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s shoulders as he faces a dangerous trinity of threats: the health emergency caused by Covid-19, the economic distress it has caused an already slowing economy and the Chinese aggression on our borders. Yet, so far, he seems to have weathered this triple onslaught rather well. The latest round of
the india today-Karvy Insights biannual Mood of the Nation survey shows that the prime minister’s popularity has soared to an unprecedented level. A phenomenal 78 per cent of those polled have rated his performance as good to outstanding as compared to 71 per cent in the MOTN survey of August 2019. (This was soon after he was re-elected a second time with a handsome majority in the May 2019 general election.) In fact, in the past five years, Modi’s personal popularity in the MOTN polls has never been as high as it is now despite the serious woes the country faces.
Reiterating the support for Modi, the poll shows that if elections were to be held now, the BJP would still command a comfortable majority on its own with 283 seats—though it would be 20 seats down from the 303 it won in the 2019 general election. The results are a boost for Modi because in the MOTN poll of January 2020, the BJP tally had fallen to 271—one short of a simple majority on its own in the Lok Sabha. The NDA’s projected tally too has gone up from 303 to 316 but it is still far short of the 353 it won in the general election, with several allies, particularly the Shiv Sena, leaving its fold. The numbers of both the BJP and NDA had fallen in January 2020 mainly because of the steep downturn in economic growth. However, in the current poll, despite the triple whammy of crises, the BJP, and by default the NDA, is seeing a revival in its political fortunes. The gap between Modi and his nearest rival, Rahul Gandhi, in response
78% Respondents rate Modi’s performance as outstanding or good, the highest ever in the past five years
to the question—‘Who is best-suited to be India’s next prime minister’—has widened to 58 percentage points compared to 12 a year and a half ago. The perception that he is the best prime minister India has had so far has also increased significantly (see charts).
What explains Modi’s remarkable surge in popularity among the respondents despite the ongoing crises? What is Modi’s management mantra for success? In a perceptive article published by the Harvard Business Review (HBR) this April, management consultants Chris Nichols, Shoma Chatterjee Hayden and Chris Tendler outline four behaviours that help leaders manage a big crisis like Covid-19: 1. Decide with speed over precision; 2. Adapt boldly; 3. Deliver reliably; and 4. Engage for impact. Modi not only seems to have fulfilled these criteria but has also gone on to add more, making his leadership style worthy of an HBR
study by itself. Take Behaviour 1: Decide with speed over precision. The article states, ‘The situation is changing by the day—even by the hour. The best leaders quickly process available information, rapidly determine what matters most and make decisions with conviction’, avoiding ‘analysis paralysis’. When it came to Covid-19, that’s exactly what Modi did when he decided to dramatically announce a nationwide lockdown on March 24, giving people only a four-hour notice.
MEETING THE COVID CHALLENGE
Modi’s decision to impose the lockdown without sufficient warning was criticised by many as was the need for a total shutdown that would clearly harm the economy. But he chose speed over precision because he knew that the Indian health system was in no position to handle a pandemic of this magnitude if the disease spread rapidly. The prime minister, therefore, decided to buy time through the lockdown to fortify the nation’s capacity to treat patients and save thousands of lives.
While the first few days saw chaos, taking the advice of principal secretary Dr P.K. Mishra, an expert in disaster management, Modi decided to form a
central command, a “war room” as it were (which the HBR authors advise), where he empowered a frontline of senior secretaries and experts to address the various problems that Covid was causing. These 11 empowered groups took decisions on key issues ranging from the availability of critical medicines and treatment centres to facilitating the supply chain and logistics for essential commodities as well as working out economic welfare measures for those who were the most severely impacted by the lockdown.
The results were telling. When the lockdown began, the nation had to import personal protection equipment (PPE) like masks, gloves and body-suits. But within two months, India became self-sufficient in PPE kits, with Indian companies rallying around to manufacture them. Testing facilities for Covid-19, which were abysmal in March with barely 5,000 tests being done a day, were ramped up and now total over 664,000 per day. Ventilators critical to the care of seriously ill Covid patients (2 per cent of those afflicted go on to require ICU facilities) were also in short supply for which domestic production was pumped up.
We may now have close to 2 million cases since the lockdown began but our case fatality rate, or the number of deaths as a proportion of total number of cases, of 2.09 per cent is one of the lowest in the world. Most importantly, Modi led the charge of briefing the nation directly and engaging chief ministers of states to fight the battle in coordination with the Centre. In doing so, he exhibited the qualities that the famed former French president Charles de Gaulle had outlined: “Faced with crisis, the man of character falls back on himself. He imposes his own stamp of action, takes responsibility for it, makes it his own.”
This perhaps explains the dichotomy in our MOTN findings whereby even though 25 per cent of the respondents believe that the Modi government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic has been its single biggest failure, they do not blame the prime minister for it. In fact, a whopping 77 per cent rate Modi’s handling of the pandemic as good or outstanding. Again, even though the migrants’ crisis caused by the lockdown was poorly handled by the Modi government, the prime minister himself is absolved of any blame. This demonstrates that despite the drawbacks of his government, the electorate
IN DEALING WITH COVID-19, MODI LED THE CHARGE BY BRIEFING THE NATION DIRECTLY AND ENGAGING THE CHIEF MINISTERS
believes Modi is the best bet for the task at hand. In their eyes, he is a leader who can do no wrong.
TREATING AN ECONOMY IN THE ICU
The HBR article formulates adapting boldly to a rapidly changing situation as the second behavioural trait of strong leaders in a crisis. Among the tips the authors advocate are: 1. Decide what not to do and ruthlessly prioritise what you need to do; and 2. Throw out yesterday’s playbook and develop new plans. When it came to shoring up the flailing economy, Modi seems to have followed some of that advice. As the economy began tanking under the weight of the nationwide lockdown, Modi adapted to the situation by modifying his emphasis on jaan (life) and combining it with jahaan (protecting livelihoods). Mishra, his principal secretary, affirms that the economy has been Modi’s prime focus from the beginning of the pandemic. He told india today, “Many thought that the prime minister was focusing only on social and health issues. But right through the Covid crisis, he was hard-focused on the economy. Even now, he is constantly pushing measures for economic growth to ensure it delivers jobs.” Those polled in the MOTN believe that Modi is handling the economic crisis well.
While most of the developed countries, the US among them, announced huge financial stimulus packages, including cash doles, to pump-prime their failing economies, Modi went against that playbook or that of his predecessor at the time of the 2008 financial crisis. Modi was hamstrung by the fact that India’s finances were unhealthy even before the pandemic struck. GDP growth had fallen to among the lowest in recent years, there was a banking crisis, and the government was finding it difficult to meet its fiscal deficit targets. Modi was unwilling to resort to desperate measures to save the economy. He followed his instincts of fiscal prudence and was selective about doling out cash support. He concentrated on the needy—the farmers, the migrants,
MODI HAS CHOSEN FISCAL PRUDENCE OVER HANDING OUT DOLES TO STIR DEMAND IN THE ECONOMY AS PEOPLE TEND TO SAVE CASH
the poor and women—for doles. For industry, Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced Rs 3 lakh crore worth of collateral-free loans for MSME units with a one-year moratorium on principal repayments.
Tarun Bajaj, secretary, economic affairs, reveals the rationale behind this approach. He says there is evidence to show that cash doles do not stimulate demand as people tend to conserve the money. Even triple A companies, he points out, availed the moratorium on loans rather than repay debts as they wanted to save cash. This was also true for women who were paid Rs 500 monthly for three months in their Jan Dhan accounts to tide over Covid. While Rs 30,000 crore was distributed under this scheme, most of the recipients didn’t spend the money and bank deposits in such accounts went up to Rs 17,000 crore. Team Modi decided it was better instead to give credit relief, particularly to MSME units, so that they could start functioning again, put people back to work and get the cycle of the economy running again. The eligibility level for MSMEs to avail of such loans was raised from a turnover of up to Rs 100 crore to Rs 250 crore, so that close to 95 per cent of them could be covered. According to Bajaj, key indicators, particularly GST collections, so far show that the economy is picking up even though it continues to be a matter of concern as the pandemic remains unpredictable in its course. However, he believes if there is a vaccine in sight, it would perk up sentiment and the economy would pick up. “We are hoping to have a V-shaped recovery,” says Bajaj.
Modi has time and again showed that he has a penchant for converting adversity into opportunity. John F. Kennedy, the 35th US president, once remarked: “When written in Chinese, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity.” Modi decided that the sea-change that Covid had wrought was an opportune moment to push through long-pending reforms. Hence his announcement of an Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, a self-reliance mission that saw major policy changes to ensure greater private investment and involvement in key sectors, including agriculture, defence, space, aviation, atomic energy and education. Modi took a personal interest in driving these reforms, presiding over scores of meetings and involving the PMO in hammering out solutions and breaking down resistance. The MOTN
wholeheartedly endorses the Atmanirbhar Bharat campaign. A majority of the respondents also stated that the Rs 20 lakh crore financial stimulus package announced by the Modi government in response to the Covid crisis will help ease some of their economic woes.
DELIVERING ON THE BIG ISSUES
Few leaders in recent times are able to feel the political pulse of a nation better than Modi has done. Topping the list of his achievements in the MOTN survey are two issues close to the Sangh Parivar’s heart: the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir and the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. And that brings us to the third behavioural trait in the HBR piece: Reliably deliver. Modi ensured that these two issues, along with the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which had figured in his party’s manifesto, were pushed through in the first six months of his second term. In all fairness, it was the Supreme Court that gave the Ram Mandir judgment in favour of the Hindu community though it did take heed of the Sangh Parivar’s request to speed up hearings.
Modi himself maintained a studied distance on the subject as he was steadfast in his view that the issue should be settled only in a court of law. He resisted demands from the Sangh brass to push through an ordinance. A day before the verdict was announced, Modi appealed for calm and told Hindutva supporters to desist from exhibiting triumphalism. He even used the shilanyas ceremony for the Ram temple on August 5 to reiterate the message of national unity of all faiths. In his speech at the temple site after the ceremony, he said, “We all have to remember that whenever humankind believed in Lord Ram, progress took place. Whenever we deviated from the path, doors to destruction opened. We have to ensure everyone’s development with the support and trust of all.”
DEALING WITH CHINA
The Chinese aggression on the Line of Actual Control this May saw casualties on both sides in a border clash for the first time in 45 years and pushed the armies to a massive troop build-up and a dangerous military stand-off. It was Modi’s Kargil moment. Just as Atal Bihari Vajpayee in his time saw Pakistan troops sneak in and occupy the heights on the LoC in 1999, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China stealthily intruded in several areas in Ladakh. How PLA troops managed to occupy zones along the LAC that India claims as its territory needs a thorough post-mortem at a later date. But Modi came under widespread criticism for maintaining at an all-party meet that the Chinese were not in occupation of Indian territory.
Perhaps Modi was signalling to President Xi Jinping, with whom he had developed a rapport after frequent meetings, that he was leaving the door open for an amicable settlement. Yet, if the Chinese harboured any delusion of
having cornered Modi, he quickly dispelled them by taking aggressive steps against Chinese business interests apart from mounting India’s military might on the LAC. The most significant among them was a ban on over 50 popular Chinese apps, including the iconic TikTok. Public sentiment was then whipped up to boycott not just Chinese apps but other goods as well. Rather than blame Modi for any laxity on the LAC, the entire episode was portrayed as a great betrayal by the Chinese. A majority of those surveyed in the MOTN poll believe that Modi has given a befitting reply to the Chinese and are even willing to pay more for goods rather than buy cheaper Chinese ones. They also believe that if a war erupts between the two countries, India will emerge the winner. In this, Modi fulfils the fourth behavioural trait of crisis management that the HBR article enumerates: Engaging for impact.
In the China crisis, Modi has so far demonstrated a steely resolve and patience that is almost Churchillian in its approach. The British war prime minister had famously said, “We shall not fail or falter; we shall not weaken or tire. Neither the sudden shock of battle, nor the long-drawn trials of vigilance and exertion will wear us down.” Modi also leveraged India’s relationship with the US, Europe, Japan and Australia and got their leaders to condemn China’s aggressive moves. India was able to draw parallels with China’s actions in the South China Sea and other areas of its interest. The US picked up the baton and President Donald Trump indicated he would ban TikTok if the Microsoft deal to buy it off failed. Modi thus managed to convert India’s problem into a worldwide concern regarding China.
However, while Modi’s popularity remains high, previous MOTN polls show that public adulation can be extremely fickle. When the prime minister, in his first term, demonetised high-value currency overnight in November 2016 in a bid to root out black money, his popularity ratings soared in the January 2017 MOTN survey despite the misery it caused to the poor and the middle class. But when the ineffectiveness of the decision became evident, demonetisation started figuring lower in the list of his government’s achievements in subsequent MOTN surveys. The crisis the nation faces today has not really gone away. The number of people who feel that the Modi government’s economic performance has been better than that of the Manmohan Singh government has fallen from 60 per cent a year ago to 43 per cent now, and has been overtaken by the number of people who feel it is on par with UPA-II. This isn’t good news for a government promising to better the Congress’s record.
Respondents in the current survey see tackling Covid-19 and providing jobs as the top priorities before the government. The prime minister should heed their concerns. His aides say he has been holding a series of meetings with economic experts to find out the state of both the world and the Indian economy, and figure out what further steps the government needs to take to ensure speedy recovery. In these meetings, Modi mostly listens and interjects only when necessary and gets the PMO to sum up the action points. The prime minister is also focusing on the implementation of the various schemes and measures his government has announced to revive the economy. He is doing what management guru Peter Drucker advocates, “Leaders communicate so that people around them know what they are trying to do. They are purpose driven. They know how to establish a mission.” Modi has shown that crises bring out the best in him—the hallmark of a decisive leader—which is good for the country too.
28% Urban respondents consider handling of Covid-19 as the government’s single biggest failure; in the rural areas, it is unemployment (25 per cent)