BJP banks on 2013 math, return of leaders in K’taka

ELECTION CALCULATION BJP has given tickets to former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa and former state minister B Sreeramulu, both MPs, who returned to the party fold in 2014

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) believes it can stop the Congress from winning a majority in the Karnataka assembly election next month and emerge much stronger than it did in 2013 because of the return of two senior leaders, two leading party politicians said. The electoral ‘arithmetic’ now weighs in the BJP’s favour, they said.

Former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa and former state minister B Sreeramulu returned to the BJP in 2014 and have been fielded in the assembly elections this time as BJP candidates.

Both are currently members of Parliament.

Yeddyurappa led the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) and Sreeramulu the Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress (BSR Congess) in the 2013 election won by the Congress party.

The arithmetic in question is based on a seat-by-seat analysis of 2013 assembly election results.

This shows that the two leaders, who left the BJP in 2012, inflicted severe damage on the BJP, helped unseat it from power and brought down its tally to 40 seats in 224-member assembly.

The BJP could have won at least 68 seats — 28 up from its actual tally — had it received the votes the KGP won.

Such a situation would have stopped the Congress short of a majority, bringing its tally from 122 to 100 seats.

The KJP won six seats and put together, the BJP’s final tally could have gone up to 74.

If the votes won by the BSR

NEWDELHI:

Congress were added to its own, the BJP’s tally could have gone up to 80 seats.

This is apart from the four seats that the BSR Congress won.

“These two leaders were responsible, to a great extent, for the BJP’s defeat in the last election,” says Harish Ramaswamy, a professor at the political science department of Karnataka University, Dharwad.

“Two elections are different. But, BSY and Sreeramulu add strength to the party. The BJP benefitted in the Lok Sabha election with their return,” a BJP general secretary said on condition of anonymity.

A separate analysis of the 2014 Lok Sabha results shows

that BJP won 133 assembly segments in Karnataka, more than the 76 won by the Congress and 15 by the Janata Dal (Secular) of HD Kumaraswamy.

While Karnataka remains a three-cornered contest, like it was in 2013 and 2014, analysts say the BJP cannot be sure of victory with the return of the two leaders.

“There is a delay on the part of the BJP to take on Sidddaramaiah on several governance issues. The BJP is not as vibrant as it was in 2014 or before that,” Ramaswamy said.

“Even there is no clarity how the Lingayats, Karnataka’s most dominant community, are going to respond to the Congress government’s bid to grant them

a separate religion status.”

Home minister Rajnath Singh noted in an interview last week that the Congress had rejected a proposal to grant Lingayats the status of a separate religious group five years ago, adding that recognising as such would amount to breaking up society.

“We won’t do politics of breaking the society. The Congress government rejected this proposal in 2013,” he said.

Another BJP office bearer, who requested anonymity, said party president Amit Shah had sent out a clear signal to Karnataka leaders that they need to remain united and avoid public feuds, which have set back the party in the past.