Could Harvey Weinstein go to jail?

Harvey Weinstein could face five to 25 years in prison on sexual assault charges if the latest abuse allegations are tried in criminal court, legal experts said. The Hollywood producer — who has been accused of sexual harassment and rape by multiple women — could be charged in New York state for a 2004 assault allegation by Lucia Evans mentioned in a New Yorker report.

Legal experts and law enforcement sources said that the claims described by Evans, a former aspiring actor, rise to the level of a felony charge under New York laws. However, because a criminal conviction could be difficult to achieve, prosecutors may be reluctant to bring a case in the first place.

Questions about the potential legal consequences facing the 65-year-old film producer have swirled since the New York Times published a piece last Thursday alleging that Weinstein sexually harassed women and made unwanted advances. Weinstein’s lawyers said he denied many of the allegations and have threatened to sue the newspaper. His spokesperson said he “unequivocally denied” claims of nonconsensual sex in the New Yorker piece, and Weinstein has apologised for causing “pain”, saying he is now in counseling.

The fallout has already been extraordinary. Weinstein was fired from his company; actors and directors have strongly condemned his actions and expressed support for his accusers, including Cara Delevingne, Léa Seydoux, Romola Garai, and Zoë Brock.

Weinstein — who paid settlements to at least eight women over the years, according to the New York Times — could be charged with a first-degree felony for a “criminal sexual act” for allegedly forcing Evans to perform oral sex on him in 2004 in a New York City office.”

Evans, in college at the time, told the magazine that she was there for a work meeting. “I said, over and over, ‘I don’t want to do this, stop, don’t.’ I tried to get away,” she recounted, adding “He’s a big guy. He overpowered me.”

Legal experts say that prosecutors could argue “use of physical force”, which would allow for the sexual act felony charge.

While the statute of limitations in many states prevents old rape and assault cases from going forward in criminal court — as was the case with most allegations against the disgraced comedian Bill Cosby — in New York, there is no time limit on bringing a criminal sexual act charge in the Evans case, assert experts. The odds, however, are still low that the prosecutor with jurisdiction will move forward.

“As much as what [Weinstein] did is deplorable, I don’t think they are going to charge a crime that is unlikely to result in a conviction,” said Lowell Sidney, a former New York City prosecutor.

“In the Evans case, it would be an uphill battle to bring a case 13 years after the incident. But even without forensic evidence or other physical evidence, prosecutors could argue the case based on Evans’ testimony and by seeking to establish that Weinstein had a pattern of similar behavior,” said Corey Rayburn Yung, a University of Kansas law professor. “There have certainly been cases brought to trial with less,” he said, but added: “These are often hard cases to win.”

Weinstein’s defense lawyers would probably try to attack his accuser’s credibility and seek to argue that the incident was consensual.