H-1B debate reflects a shift in US politics
The big realignment happening on the ground is the migration of the white working class vote to the Republicans
Immigration, or restriction of the same, is the policy front that may come to define the Donald Trump administration. No US president, Republican or Democrat, has so strongly opposed migration in the postwar era. There may be more to this than just prejudice. Trump’s presidency reflects what is becoming a major realignment of the US political system.
The big switcheroo taking place is the migration of the white working class vote to the Republicans. A pillar of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal coalition, the 1970s recession drove them into the arms of Ronald Reagan. They went back and forth after that, for example voting for Bill Clinton but rejecting John Kerry. But their Republican links kept getting weaker, especially as the culture wars over gay rights and abortion slowly wound down and only economic and identity issues were left behind. And on these issues these workers were at odds with the corporate Republicans who dictated the party’s legislative agenda.
During last year’s presidential campaign this gap became so large that Trump slipped through. A Pew Research Centre poll showed that among Trump supporters 66% saw immigration as a “very big problem”. Only 17% of Hillary Clinton voters thought the same. Trump was the only one who defied free market orthodoxy to turn against it – and against trade, welfare cuts and fiscal prudence.
Who will be the US supporters of immigration in the future? The polling evidence seems clear. The younger an American, the more educated, the more metropolitan and the more likely he or she to support open borders. For now, the US will lose the political consensus regarding immigration that it has enjoyed since at least the 1960s. There is a nuance here, however. Polls show Asian and European immigrants receive positive views from all Americans, receiving one-fourth the negative views of Latinos and West Asians.
The slow turn taking place with US immigration policy, combined with the incoherence of the Trump administration, will likely mean difficulties for immigrants of all varieties for some years to come. During this time, the real loss for the US could be the loss of immigrant entrepreneurs, the secret sauce of places like Silicon Valley, North Carolina’s Research Triangle and the New Jersey pharma hub. About a third of US hi-tech startups are started by immigrants, thanks to the country’s ability to attract the world’s best brains.
The most telling example of how eager such talent is to stay in the US has been the 1.5 million tech workers, largely Indian and Chinese, who came over on H-1B visas and now queue to convert them into green cards. The wait has slowly increased to several years. Trump’s plans would possibly make the present legal limbo into a permanent purgatory.
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