One who negotiates caste maze wins Uttar Pradesh
LUCKNOW: Late socialist leader Charan Singh used to tell his party workers to “hold the base vote and chase the plus”. Jats were his party’s base and he tried to add Muslims and backward classes, primarily Ahirs (Yadavs), as the plus.
But the schism in the Jat-Muslim vote bank after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots has left his son, Ajit Singh, desperate for a partner ahead of the 2017 state election.
That is the story of the Rashtriya Lok Dal — a bit player in Uttar Pradesh. But, it is not just the RLD. Six months ahead of the state election, all the four major players face the same challenge -- holding on to base vote while chasing the plus.
THE DIE IS CAST
The scramble for caste groups will intensify in the coming days, pushing aside issues such as development, corruption and law and order that dominate the discourse today.
The Congress has hit the campaign trail with the slogan “27 saal-UP behal” (27 years and UP a mess – a reference to the non-Congress governments that ruled the state during the period).
The BJP is busy painting four-time chief minister and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati as corrupt and is targeting chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party (SP) over poor law and order situation.
But its faces the same problem – its base vote is as slippery as the add-ons they are eyeing.
According to a study by Kanpur-based political scientist AK Verma, Mayawati lost in 2012 primarily because of the erosion of her Dalit base.
Again in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, a chunk of her supporters went with the BJP. Hoping to get the added Muslim and Brahmin votes to get past the half-way mark in the 403-member assembly, Mayawati is equally desperate to win back the voters who shifted loyalties.
THE MAYA FACTOR
The BJP, essentially an uppercaste party that also enjoys the support of a section among the other backward classes, is eyeing a share of the Dalit pie for a winning formula. Dalits account for 21% of the state’s population.
But the lower caste vs upper caste battle lines have sharpened after now-expelled BJP leader Dayashankar Singh abused Mayawati. BSP leader Naseemuddin Siddiqui’s remark against Singh’s wife and daughter made things worse.
But Mayawati knew a confrontation could cost her upper-caste support. After a formal protest, she withdrew the agitation against Singh. The damage, however, is done as the Brahmins are again sceptic about her.
Political scientist Badri Narain says Dalits rally behind Mayawati every time her party colleagues “betray” her, a reference to Swamy Prasad Maurya and RK Choudhary walking out of the party.
“She has activated most backward votes and if she wins two to three per cent Brahmin vote, she will form the government,” says Narain. Prof Rajesh Singh of Gorakhpur doesn’t agree. Mayawati, he says, has lost upper-caste support. Barely a month ago, he was talking about her return to power.
The BJP faces a similar situation. Its efforts to add Dalits to the upper caste and OBC support base have not worked to the plan.
THE SCRAMBLE FOR CASTE GROUPS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE COMING DAYS, PUSHING ASIDE ISSUES SUCH AS DEVELOPMENT AND CORRUPTION
THE M-Y EQUATION
The SP rode to power in 2012 on the back of several caste groups. Some of its Yadav voters are vulnerable to the BJP’s “Hindutava agenda” and it can’t afford to lose support among the Muslims either.
Akhilesh Yadav, however, is banking on the youth, who he says are socialists – without caste leanings. The party is confident of youngsters picking the 43-year-old over the much-older rival CM candidates.
The Congress is the only party with the base that transcends caste. But it, too, can’t escape the vicious cycle: Which group will be the first to return to the party -- the Brahmins, Dalits or the Muslims. Since the demolition of the Babri mosque in 1992, the voting pattern among Muslims has varied from constituency to constituency. The community has voted against the BJP and favoured strong candidates.
In a fluid scenario like this, it could be anybody’s game in Uttar Pradesh.