2014: Fun’s just begun

The decision of the Tamil Nadu-based Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) to withdraw its support to the second United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, ostensibly on account of New Delhi not being sufficiently critical of Colombo for supporting the war crimes committed by the Sri Lankan Army on ethnic Tamils four years ago, may have its roots in regional politics, but the move has wider consequences. Despite claims to the contrary made by finance minister P. Chidambaram (who is also from Tamil Nadu) — whose second “dream” Budget is in real danger of becoming a nightmare like his earlier 1997 Budget — the withdrawal of support by the DMK has further weakened an already weak UPA government and increased the possibility of early general elections.

Even a few weeks ago, all talk of the 16th general elections taking place five or six months ahead of schedule in OctoberNovember instead of March-April 2014 would have been summarily dismissed by most political observers, in particular, spokespersons of the ruling Congress Party. Not any longer. In fact, there is a section within the Congress that is today arguing that it may be better for the long-term health of India’s “grand old party” if elections take place before the conclusion of the government’s full term of five years, instead of allowing a lame-duck regime to continue well beyond its expiry date.

Until not very long ago, if the chances of the non-Congress, non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) so-called Third Front government coming to power — for the first time since 1996 — were discussed, the speculation would be scoffed at, even by potential beneficiaries of such a denouement. Such a possibility is no longer seen as an outcome of wishful thinking. After Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar addressed a public rally in the capital and argued that no Union government could be formed in the future by ignoring the economically backward states of eastern India, including, of course, Bihar, the leader of the Janata Dal (United) was hailed as a potential Prime Minister of the country.

How did such a change in thinking come about in such a short period of time? One reason stems from the growing realisation that the Congress seems to be becoming increasingly unpopular. The inability of the Manmohan Singh government to control inflation, especially the sharp spike in food prices, turning a blind eye to brazen acts of corruption and its focus on issues that apparently matter little to the common man — such as reducing the fiscal deficit and attracting foreign investors — have all contributed to the perception that the chances of a third UPA government have become rather remote. Even the anointment of Rahul Gandhi, who will turn 43 on June 19, as vice-president of the Congress appears to have done little to revive

With the DMK now gone, the UPA will need the support of the Samajwadi Party and the BSP to ensure it has a majority in the Lower House

the party’s sagging fortunes.

Relations between the Congress and the DMK were strained for quite some time. For many in the Congress, the allegations of corruption against a number of DMK ministers in the UPA government — notably, two former communications ministers Dayanidhi Maran and Andimuthu Raja (who spent 15 months behind bars), former highways minister T.R. Baalu and former minister of state for information and broadcasting S. Jagathrakshakan whose name cropped up in the Coalgate scandal — tarnished the image of the ruling coalition.

The DMK, on the other hand, claimed the government had not done enough to “protect” the likes of Mr Raja and K. Kanimozhi, Rajya Sabha MP and daughter of DMK chief M. Karunanidhi who also spent more than six months in jail. When Mr Raja wanted to depose before the joint parliamentary committee inquiring into the 2G spectrum scandal to give his version of events, he was refused permission presumably because the Congress thought his deposition would lead to demands from the Opposition for the finance minister and the Prime Minister to appear before the panel, which would then become difficult to refuse.

The US-backed resolution of the UN Human Rights Council on Sri Lanka provided a golden opportunity to the DMK to sever their links with the Congress — the party had, in any case, little to lose by sticking with the Congress after it had been badly mauled in the April 2011 Assembly elections in which the number of MLAs belonging to the DMK front came crashing down from 157 to 31 in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly.

After the Trinamul parted ways with the UPA in September 2012, the coalition continued to command a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. But with the DMK now gone, the UPA will need the support of the two major political parties from Uttar Pradesh — the Samajwadi Party (SP) with 22 MPs, and its arch rival, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with 21 MPs — to ensure that it has a majority in the Lower House of Parliament. The SP and the BSP have in the past displayed crass opportunism in shifting their political allegiances. They are unreliable partners in the best of times. Both parties will try and obtain the best bargains for themselves if they extend support to the government.

As for the ruling Congress, it may as well forget about enacting contentious legislation — including so-called economic “reforms” initiatives, such as increasing the foreign investment limit in insurance companies and allowing foreign firms in pensions — that are supposedly close to the heart of the finance minister and the Prime Minister.

The only saving grace for the Congress is that the biggest Opposition party, the BJP, is in pretty bad shape as well. It is expected to face a humiliating defeat in the Karnataka Assembly elections that will take place in early May. The only states where the BJP can realistically hope to increase its existing tally of MPs by more than 10 are Rajasthan and, perhaps, Uttar Pradesh. There is no consensus within the party, not to mention the National Democratic Alliance, about projecting Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as a prime ministerial candidate. As for the Congress, insiders acknowledge in private that the party’s tally of MPs will come down by around 50 from four states alone: Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.

Under the circumstances, even if one assumes that elections do not take place ahead of schedule, the likelihood of a non-Congress, non-BJP combination coming to power (possibly supported from outside by either one of the two biggest political parties) cannot be ruled out. The writer is an educa

tor and commentator