Pak convulsions: Future uncertain
Pakistan is once again convulsed by a form of people power that seeks to force a government from office rather than effect a peaceful transfer of power through the ballot. In 2007, a nationwide march by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammed Chowdhry set in motion a cry for democracy that saw the return of exiled politicians Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif and an election that the establishment couldn’t manipulate, thus ending Musharraf’s presidency. Five years later, history could repeat itself. Elections are still months away, and Pakistan’s first democratically-elected government could go the same way.
Faced with mass protests led by fiery cleric Maulana Tahirul Qadri, the Pakistani “street” has resounded with calls for the PPP government “to go”. President Zardari looks set to choose the path of confrontation and crack down on activists rather than agree to demands for electoral reform — an autonomous election commission and an independent caretaker PM to oversee the polls rather than the partisan body agreed to by the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). While the unpopular President weighs his options, conspiracy theorists are connecting the dots, pointing at the Army and judiciary working in tandem to precipitate a crisis that may snowball into the kind of mayhem that would see the military take power again. Others point to the US, seeking to prop up a moderate Islamic face to legitimise drone attacks to which Mr Zardari’s government, and the Army, gave tacit approval.
Certainly, the coincidences can’t be ignored. Within hours of the SC ordering PM Raja Pervez Ashraf’s arrest on corruption charges, the million-man march converged on Islamabad.
But is this Pakistan’s Tahrir moment? Mr Qadri, who heads the Tehrik Minhaj-ul-Quran — not known for its electoral prowess — has demonstrated he can replicate the street power of Cairo and Tripoli. Stage-managed, perhaps, but Mr Qadri could well become the catalyst under whom the so-called “Islampasand” parties like Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreeki-Insaaf and others come together, which the PPP and PML(N) describe as “anti-democratic”. But whether Mr Qadri, once closely linked to the Sharifs and Musharraf's PML(Q) and an avowed anti-jihadist from the Barelvi school of thought, opposed to the Deobandi Taliban, topples Mr Zardari’s government or not, the ordinary Pakistani’s lack of trust in peaceful change is the real cause for concern. Mr Zardari would do well to announce elections, take the air out of Mr Qadri’s balloon and hope a sham democracy is not brought in through the back door.