Technical analysis

Excess supply is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the prices. Broadly, the charts do not show indications of a bullish turnaround at present.

LME Copper ($8,579.5)

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has been oscillating between $7,900 and $8,700 since May last year. Resistance above $8,700 are at $9,000 and $9,400. On the other hand, support below $7,900 can be spotted at $7,200. A break below $7,200 can trigger another round of selloff, possibly dragging the contract to $6,500 and then to $5,800. Going ahead, copper futures could fall to the price region between $7,500 and $7,200 in the coming months and then establish a longterm uptrend. Note that for the contract to turn the trend bullish, it should decisively invalidate the barrier at $9,400. Support: $7,900 and $7,200 Resistance: $8,700 and $9,400

LME Aluminium ($2,240)

Aluminium futures on the LME has been charting a sideways trend since May 2023. It has been fluctuating between $2,100 and $2,385. The chart shows no bias on either side and so, the chances for the consolidation to continue are high. A breakout of $2,385 can lift the contract to $2,500 and $2,650. Note that $2,650 is the critical level and only if aluminium futures surpass this level can it establish a sustainable rally. On the other hand, in case the contract slips below the strong base of $2,100, we are likely to see a quick fall to $1,950, a support. Subsequent support is at $1,830.

Support: $2,100 and $1,950 Resistance: $2,385 and $2,500

LME Lead ($2,104.5)

Lead futures on the LME, since the beginning of 2023, is moving horizontally. It has been tracing a broader sideways range of $2,000 and $2,300. Within this price region, there is a resistance at $2,170. But even before 2023, lead futures has not been steadily trending in either direction. So, we can expect the contract to behave that way in the coming months. We anticipate lead futures to stay in the $2,0002,300 range over the medium term. Even if either of the boundaries of the range is broken, there are resistance and support nearby which can keep movement limited on either side. Support: $2,000 and $1,915 Resistance: $2,170 and $2,300

LME Zinc ($2,527.5)

Zinc futures, like the other base metals, has been in a sideways crawl. It has been oscillating between $2,270 and $2,650 since May 2023. Immediately above $2,650 is another important hurdle at $2,700. So, the price band of $2,6502,700 is a resistance band. If this is taken out, zinc futures can rally to $2,900. A breakout of $2,900 can lead to the contract establishing a strong upswing. But if zinc futures decline from here and drop below $2,270, it can fall to $2,040 and $1,800. If the downtrend to $1,800 happens, we can expect zinc futures to see a significant bullish reversal off this support.

Support: $2,270 and $2,040 Resistance: $2,700 and $2,900

LME Nickel ($18,011)

Nickel futures, which was stuck between $15,900 and $17,200 since November 2023, saw a fresh breakout last month. So, there is a chance for the contract to see further upside. However, the rally can be limited as there are resistances at $18,500 and $20,300. If the bulls can push the price above $20,300, then the longterm trend can turn bullish. But as it stands, the probability for that to occur is low. The upswing could be a corrective rally and we might see the price falling after reaching either of the resistance. If the support at $15,900 is breached, nickel futures can witness a fall to $14,280. Support: $15,900 and $14,280 Resistance: $18,500 and $20,300