Iran has no easy options as it seeks to avenge Syria attack
Iran may be close to launching missile or drone strikes on Israeli targets in response to a deadly attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria last week. Yet how the Islamic Republic retaliates is more complicated than the why.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said Israel will be “punished” for the assault, which destroyed the consulate building and killed at least 13 people. The risk is that the move could significantly escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put Iran even more in the crosshairs.
The US and its allies believe a major revenge attack is imminent, either by Iran or its various proxies in the region, according to people familiar with the intelligence. Recent history suggests any assault will be measured against what might come next from Iran’s adversaries. When the US killed General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, for example, Iran opted for non-lethal attacks on military bases. In a post to X, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron said he told Iran’s foreign minister in a call Thursday that the country must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict.
“I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence,” Cameron wrote. “Iran should instead work to de-escalate and prevent further attacks.”
Israel hasn’t claimed responsibility for the Damascus attack, in keeping with its usual response to accusations of targeting Iran, though it has tried to cut off weapons supplies to Islamist militant groups via Syria for years.
Its military campaign in Gaza against Hamas — a group backed by Iran and categorized as a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union — has entered a seventh month and been accompanied by heightened tension with Hezbollah and the Houthis, other militia allied with Iran. “Iran is in a precarious position — Israel has been calling its bluff for some time,” said Bader Al-saif, an assistant professor at Kuwait University and a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “It’s kind of damned if it responds and damned if it doesn’t.” At stake for Iran is the risk of diverting the world’s attention away from Israel’s war in Gaza, which Hamas authorities say has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians and led to increasing international and domestic pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A humanitarian crisis has been building in the enclave, and the United Nations has warned that tens of thousands of people are on the brink of famine.
Tehran’s potential attack, which has spooked oil markets, could come in a variety of forms.
Khamenei has said the Damascus assault was equivalent to an attack on Iranian soil, and the most explosive response would be to launch one in Israel. That would have the potential to trigger a full-on war that would likely draw in the US and other Israeli allies. A precedent for Iran attacking Israeli territory came in 2018, when Tehran fired rockets from Syria on positions in the Golan Heights. Yet even if Iran’s leader were to attempt such a move, his military would have to get past Israel’s sophisticated defense systems, according to Fabian Hinz, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
That becomes even harder from long range, unless supplemented by attacks from, say, Hezbollah next door in Lebanon. That, though, would risk further conflict between Israel and the group. A lower-key option would be an escalation of Hezbollah’s rocket barrage on northern Israel or Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Iran attack on Israel is a viable threat, says White House
A reportedly imminent attack by Iran on Israel is a real and viable threat, the White House said on Friday, giving no details about any possible timing and reiterating that the US takes its commitments to defend Israel seriously.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby added that the United States is looking at its own force posture in the region and is watching the situation very closely.