After kharif loss, abundant late monsoon gives farmers hope

Reduced dependence on irrigation due to high soil moisture could bring down costs in rabi season

Anil Goswami, a 45-year-old farmer from Budhni, near Bhopal, shifted from soybean to maize a few years earlier, in the hope of getting better returns.

He did finally make good money as the overall market was favourable for maize, except for a few seasons. In the earlier kharif season (2018), maize was selling at a little over ~22 a kg, making it a valuable crop for farmers. Encouraged, Goswami decided to expand his sowing, taking some land on lease.

However, relentless rain over recent months have dashed his hopes. His standing maize crop was extensively damaged and price realisation was hit due to excessive moisture in the final produce.

A worried Goswami has now pinned all hope on the coming rabi crop of wheat, which he plans to grow on the entire land parcel (owned plus leased). “I have suffered losses in maize. My hopes are on the coming wheat crop,” he told this correspondent over the telephone from Budhni.

Since the region is noted for its highquality ‘durum’ wheat, Goswami hopes the rabi harvest will help him recoup some of the earlier loss. For, he notes, the excess rains, coupled with delayed departure of the southwest monsoon, have left considerable moisture in the soil. This will reduce the dependence on irrigation to grow the wheat, lowering production cost.

For millions of farmers like Goswami in northern, central and western India, the excessive rain this monsoon season did aggravate problems but have also given hope of a good rabi harvest -- if the weather in the coming months remains benign.

The late sowing of rabi crops due to a delayed kharif harvest could compensate for the earlier loss if yields are good. Wheat is the biggest rabi crop, followed by mustard, chana (chickpea) and masur dal (red lentil).

Most of the crop grown in the rabi season is in irrigated areas. A good southwest monsoon ensures enough in the reservoirs and in groundwater reserves. An India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast says soil moisture levels in central and north India are expected to remain stable in November, which should aid the planting of rabi crops.

According to a report in Telangana, average groundwater levels in the state rose by 4.7 metres in September from pre-monsoon levels. It was 14.56 metres below ground level (mbgl) in May, and 9.85 mbgl in September.

A good rabi harvest could also ensure a pick-up in farm growth, which had slumped in real terms to two per cent in the first quarter of the 2019-20 financial year, from 5.1 per cent during the same period last year.

“The excess rains in this monsoon season, followed by strong post-monsoon showers, bode well for the rabi crop, be it wheat, mustard and chana. Even onions and potatoes will be positively impacted by this,” says Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings.

Anticipating a healthy rabi harvest, he feels India’s agriculture and allied activities' Gross Value Added for 2019-20 will settle at 2.5-3 per cent. In 2018-19, it was estimated at 2.9 per cent.

The latest estimate for foodgrain production in the 2019 kharif season is expected to be only 0.8 per cent lower than last year, at 140.57 million tonnes. Sowing was on 106.27 million hectares in 2019, only 0.5 per cent lower than last year.

Bumper monsoon

The June to September rainfall this year was 10 per cent above average in the country, highest in the past 25 years, says IMD. The country got more rain than this year back in 1994, again around 110 per cent above the average during the southwest monsoon season.

Till September 30 this year, India got 968.3 millimetres of rain, as against a normal 880.6 mm. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 19 had excess rain and 12 normal rain; five were deficient.

It was also the first time since 1931 that the southwest monsoon was excess after rainfall in June was declared more than 30 per cent deficient. And, the first time after 2010 that rainfall in July, August and September were all above average.

The good rain boosted kharif sowing, which till the end of June was looking down, due to a 33 per cent below-average rainfall. After pounding the country and causing some damage to the standing kharif crop, the monsoon finally retreated in late October, making it one of the slowest withdrawals since the 1960s.

If that wasn’t enough, post-monsoon rain has been extremely good as well. According to IMD, between October 1 and 29, the country had 41 per cent more rain, also among the best in recent times. Several parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala continued to get plenty of rain in October, though the monsoon had officially retreated.

On the negative side, reports say heavy post-monsoon showers in Maharashtra's Akola district have destroyed 170,000 hectares of soybean, 9,512 hectares of sorghum and 150,000 hectares of the cotton crop.

Reservoirs

Another major factor that should aid in a good rabi harvest is the water levels in major reservoirs. As on October 24, the live storage capacity of 120 monitored by the Central Water Commission was a combined 170.32 billion cubic metres or 127 per cent of both last year’s and of the past 10 years' average. The level is 66 per cent of the live capacity of these reservoirs. Augusring well for both the rabi harvest and power supply.

In comparison, at June-end, when the monsoon was over 30 per cent below average, water levels in the reservoirs had dipped to 16 per cent of live capacity. A pick-up in sowing, which showed a surprise increase in September, would also help improve the employment scenario in rural India. The unemployment rate fell from 8.2 per cent in August to 7.2 per cent in September, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. Most of this was due to jobs created in rural India, on the back of a good monsoon. A similar trend is likely in the coming rabi season as well, which could re-start the consumption story.

"In 2009 (a drought year), too, kharif crops were impacted due to delayed rains but the same late rains helped rabi crops. So, the overall impact on agricultural growth wasn't much and rabi saved the day. A similar situation could happen in 2019-20," said Mahendra Dev, Director of the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research in Mumbai.