SKYMET LOWERS RAIN FORECAST TO ‘BELOW NORMAL’

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet lowered its southwest monsoon forecast for 2018 to ‘below normal’ on Wednesday, at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). It expects a prolonged weak phase in August and lower-than-normal rain in September, after which the four-month season would end. If true, this would hit the production of kharif crops, the sowing of which was down almost 8 per cent till last week. In April, Skymet's first forecast was for a normal monsoon, at 100 per cent of the LPA, with an error range of five percentage points either way. SANJEEB MUKHERJEE writes

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet lowered its southwestmonsoonforecastfor 2018 to ‘below normal’ on Wednesday, at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

It expects a prolonged weak phase in August and lower than normal rain in September, after which the four-month season would end. If true, this would hit the production of kharif crops, sowing of which was down almost eight per cent till lastweek. InApril, Skymet's first forecast was for a normal monsoon, at 100 per cent of the LPA, with an error range of five percentage points either way. For August, it had predicted rainfall of 96 per cent of the LPA and 101 per cent for September

IMD defines normal rain as between 96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season.