Rise of the Opposition
At the time of writing, there is little clarity on how the H D Kumaraswamy-led government in Karnataka will decide portfolios between Janata Dal (Secular), his party, and Congress, the senior coalition partner. All that the chief minister has confirmed is a farm loan waiver, a promise originally made by his opponent, the BJP’s B S Yeddyurappa, on the campaign trail.
Such quibbling in the very first week seems out of place in a coalition whose birth was midwifed by a Congress desperate not to lose out to the BJP in the only important state left in the Grand Old Party’s kitty. During the government’s swearing in, nearly every major Opposition leader (barring Biju Janata Dal’s Naveen Patnaik) made it to Bengaluru. For BJP backers, therefore, the prospect of government formation in Karnataka getting off to a rocky start would be heartening. Combined with Mayawati’s statement that she would rather go alone in 2019 than sacrifice seats, the past week has already diluted some of the promise of the grand photo-op in Bengaluru.
Indeed, what happened in Karnataka was reminiscent of the pre-2014 electoral scene in that no major state has thrown up a hung verdict since. Even in Bihar, the BJP was a clear loser to the Nitish Kumar-Lalu Yadav alliance before the duo parted ways and Kumar aligned with the BJP.
That the Karnataka verdict was a hair’s breadth away from being in BJP’s favour, revived all the drama and regrettable spectacle of watching what is charitably called “democracy in action”. An overzealous Governor was checked by a sleepdeprived Supreme Court, ensuring that Yeddyurappa, with 105 seats, finally made way for Kumaraswamy, with 39.
What this means for the big battle in 2019 is by far the more interesting question. On the day the verdict was announced, the BJP’s euphoria at what seemed to be a clear victory in early trends did not entirely dissipate even after the final, lower tally was announced. The party looks at Karnataka as its gateway to the South and even a less-than-grand result is welcome.
In his resignation speech on the floor of the House after occupying the chief minister’s chair for a total of two days, Yeddyurappa promised he would get the BJP all 28 Lok Sabha seats from the state. He spoke about his desire — ultimately denied — to lead Karnataka at a time Narendra Modi is at the Centre. The Lingayat community is smarting at the prospect of their man being denied the top post, and the BJP might well benefit from a sympathy wave next year.
This was also the week that the Modi government completed four years in office and launched the “Saaf Niyat, Sahi Vikas” campaign anthem. The video, which touches upon everything from electricity coverage to financial inclusion, Swachch Bharat to Ujjwala Yojana, revived memories of the BJP’s abortive India Shining campaign from 2004, but there are two key differences.
One is, of course, Modi’s apparently interminable popularity. Before the Karnataka verdict, some political analysts were at pains to point out how the Modi factor was not a criterion in the southern state, whose chief minister Siddaramaiah had studiously built up an insider-versus-outsider campaign. All those considerations ultimately proved moot.
Second, the government, in spite of its tendency to go overboard with publicity, is generally acknowledged to have made a sincere attempt in a host of areas. From big-bang moves like GST and the Bankruptcy Code to the use of technology in the delivery of services, the government cannot be faulted for not trying. Not all schemes work, and not all of them work equally, but going by electoral trends, large swathes of Indians seem to like what they see.
There is a third factor that goes in Modi’s favour. The criticism of the government in the mainstream media increasingly belongs to an echo chamber that fails to reach the ground. Language, since the most powerful media in this country is in English, is only part of the story. Long derided in the media before he took office in 2014, Modi benefitted from the perception that the media was not interested in giving him the benefit of doubt. The surge in social media platforms, with quips on WhatsApp quickly going viral, has only reinforced this scenario.
The media must also partly share the blame. Some organisations find nothing at all of merit in the government’s work and, in latching on to criticism when none is warranted, further alienate those who are interested in an unbiased account. Look, for instance, at the skewed coverage on some platforms of something as harmless as the fitness challenge. Similarly, the debate over the security implications of Aadhaar is largely lopsided in the mainstream media given the broader context of a national registry and services provision.
Will the Opposition’s move to checkmate the BJP yield results? A year is a long time but the trends are not promising.