Washington eyes wrong path at crossroad
Afew things have happened in the United States this week which suggest that rather than exercising prudence and developing a more sophisticated strategy toward China, one featuring both engagement and competition, the Joe Biden administration will double down on the containment policies instigated by its predecessor.
On Monday, a day that will have warmed the cockles of hawkish hearts in Washington, the Office of the US Trade Representative promised to be tough on the allegedly unfair trade practices of China in its 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report; the Pentagon gave the China Task Force four months to come up with a concrete road map for dealing with China; the US Indo-Pacific Command delivered a report to Congress in which it called for roughly $27 billion in additional spending between 2022 and 2027 to “boost deterrence against China”, and two US Congressmen called for diplomatic recognition of the island of Taiwan.
Two days later, the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance provided additional proof that despite the conspicuous contrast in the characters of the current US leader and his immediate predecessor, their perceptions of China are very much alike. Nor do their approaches diverge much, except in Biden’s emphasis on multilateralism, an aporetic “coalition of democracies” to confront China.
The cold shoulders the secretary of state Mike Pompeo encountered when trying to form such a clique should have driven home the message that countries want the US to act like a rational adult, not a petulant child. While the perceived competition will inevitably translate into real world wrangling in various fields, that should not inevitably equate to confrontation and conflict from which there will be no way out.
There is really no excuse for the two sides not to manage their competition and engage in meaningful cooperation in areas such as climate change, global health security, arms control and nuclear nonproliferation.
But those in both countries who cherished the hope that a new administration would inject reason and coolheadedness into Washington’s China policies now have to accept that those hopes are fading.
The stumbling block, despite Biden’s claim the interim guidance conveyed a vision of how the US will engage with the world, is Washington’s paucity of vision of how to deal with a changing world. It seems that imagining a true coalition of countries in a community with a shared future is simply beyond it.
Until Washington tears down the walls of misperceptions it has built about China, it will remain in thrall to the past and effectively be a warden in a prison incarcerating possibilities.
For China, that will mean damage control.