‘At least for now’ little hope of mediation with enemies in no mood to compromise
China might be able to help mediate in the deadly conflict in Sudan but the warring parties are still far from any compromise, according to analysts.
Clashes between rival Sudanese military forces this month have left at least 420 people dead and thousands wounded.
The fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the
heavily armed Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group erupted in the capital Khartoum on April 15 and flared in other parts of the country after months of jostling for power.
Last month, China helped broker a deal to restore diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, using its leverage with both countries to bring them together.
But a repeat of that success with Sudan was unlikely any time soon, according to Ma Xiaolin, an international relations professor focusing on Islamic countries at Zhejiang International Studies University.
“China is in a good position to be a mediator in the crisis,” Ma said. “China has always had good relations with Sudan, including relations with their military, and politically speaking, both parties [in the conflict] have trust in China.
“[But] at least for now, judging from official statements, China has not yet shown any intention to mediate and is probably watching the situation evolve.”
So far, Beijing has – at least publicly – said only that it hopes the two parties will cease fighting as soon as possible and avoid worsening the situation.
“China hopes that the Sudanese parties will strengthen dialogue and jointly promote the political transition process,” the foreign ministry said on April 16.
Zeno Leoni, a lecturer at the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, said Sudan was an important part of the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region for China.
“In China’s overall grand strategy, Sudan, together with other MENA region countries, can become a key ally of China should Beijing ever decide to take greater international responsibilities,” Leoni said.
Hannah Ryder, a senior associate in the Africa programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development were leading the mediation role, but China could still play a part.
“It is very important for China to recognise the role of the African Union and use African solutions to African problems, but China provides a neutral ground for the parties to come together,” Ryder said.