Cap concerns revolve around three key free agents
Decisions made by major free agents will determine everyone else’s fate
Canada Day is cause for celebration and reflection.
In the National Hockey League, it’s an annual engaging mix of anticipation and angst as free agent frenzy commences and franchises make both prudent and preposterous purchases.
For the Vancouver Canucks, the onus isn’t on adding to their mix. It’s fitting their key unrestricted free agents under the restrictions of a projected US$81.5-million salary cap ceiling that could last for years.
The loss of hockey-related revenue is reflective of the crippling coronavirus pandemic that paused this season on March 12. If it’s not resumed, it’s a $1-billion loss in revenue and even resumption of play in August will recoup only a third of the financial blow.
It’s a lot to wrap your head around in attempting to sign unrestricted free agents Jacob Markstrom, Tyler Toffoli and Chris Tanev. Two days before the season was paused, the league said the cap was projected to rise to between $84 million and $88 million.
Run this by Canucks general manager Jim Benning and you get a better read of all the uncertainty he’s dealing with in the new normal.
Expiring contracts are expected to be pushed back to Oct. 30 with free agency to follow. That might help better assess the value of restricted free agents in the demanding post-season, and aside from regular communication with player agents about salary-versus-term dynamics, there are other, more pressing hurdles to clear.
“To be quite honest, I’ve been swamped with the logistics of trying to figure out how to get players back to town and all the protocols we have to follow,” said Benning. “So my energy has been used on that. We’ll see where the cap is, make adjustments, and sign players. But I’m not thinking about that now.”
Benning wasn’t dodging the question. He was referring to a constantly changing landscape amid COVID-19 safety concerns. And there are also pressing league issues to finalize an extension to the collective bargaining agreement and address financial losses for owners and players.
Of course, Benning must sign Markstrom and Toffoli and see if he can rationalize a commitment to Tanev. He’s made that much clear. What isn’t clear is the addition by subtraction that would have to take place.
The team’s restricted free agents include Troy Stecher, Jake Virtanen, Adam Gaudette, Tyler Motte and Zack MacEwen. The fact that Stecher, Virtanen, Motte and MacEwen have arbitration rights and varying levels of leverage could force management into a corner.
Justin Bailey is also an RFA with arbitration rights and the organization has depth contracts expiring in Guillaume Brisebois (RFA), Jalen Chatfield (RFA), Ashton Sautner (UFA), Louis Domingue (UFA) and Richard Bachman (UFA).
With Brogan Rafferty and possibly Olli Juolevi pushing for roster spots next season — and the ongoing quest to sign Nikita Tryamkin — something has to give on the back end.
Jordie Benn has a year left on his deal at $2 million and maybe the Montreal Canadiens bring him back into their fold for depth purposes.
Letting UFA Oscar Fantenberg go is easier if you’re going to promote from within or add depth. And what about the versatile Stecher? Is he a long-term fit?
If that’s not enough to clog the brain, next year Benning is staring down the barrel as Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes look for rich, franchise-defining extensions.
In the interim, here’s a capsule looking at signing priorities for the Canucks:
JACOB MARKSTROM (UFA)
Resolve. Resilience. Leadership.
Markstrom checked those key boxes during a remarkable season that garnered his second consecutive Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy nomination for perseverance and dedication.
On the ice, it included an 11-2-0 run from mid-December to February, followed by setting a career high and franchise record 49 saves on Feb. 12 in a 3-0 win over the Chicago Blackhawks to help cement his status as club MVP. And in eight games where Markstrom faced 40 or more shots, he sported a 7-0-1 record.
Off the ice, Markstrom took a leave of absence in October to be with his cancer-stricken father, Anders, in Sweden. He returned with a remarkable 38-save performance in a 3-2 win at Madison Square Garden, and would leave again to attend a celebration of life in December after his father had died.
“To show consistency and a high standard was something,” said Benning. “We’re trying to establish a culture here and Jacob is a big part of that with how hard he competes and how well-liked he is in the room.”
Under normal circumstances, Markstrom’s expiring $3.6-million cap hit would get a big boost here or in free agency, but today’s NHL is far from normal. He’s recovered from a February knee injury and was better statistically than fellow UFA goalies Robin Lehner, ($5-million cap hit) and Braden Holtby ($6 million), but there won’t be a burgeoning free agent market for cash-strapped teams.
The Canucks have leverage because Markstrom wants to stay, but how long do they commit to their 30-year-old starter? It’s either more money at less term or less money with more security.
“You want to play for somebody who wants you,” said Markstrom.
Performance.
Goalie Jacob Markstrom’s remarkable season has cemented his status as the team’s MVP and earned him a second straight Bill Masterton trophy nod for perseverance and dedication.
“I think (goalie coach) Ian Clark is one of the best in the world. To work with him every day is a privilege. He expects a lot from you, but I really like that. That’s when I push myself to become better. I’m very comfortable in Vancouver, for sure. In my mind I want to stay — that’s my goal. I’m still a Canuck and proud of that.”
TYLER TOFFOLI (UFA)
The winger has a long friendship with Tanner Pearson and a new admirer in J.T. Miller.
Pearson can help sell Toffoli on the team and city and Miller can sell management on Toffoli’s worth that goes far beyond 10 points (6-4) in 10 games after being acquired from the Los Angeles Kings on Feb. 11.
Today’s game is about winning board battles and getting inside. If you have the determination to get in the slot and stay there — and can dig a puck out of your skates to unleash a quick and accurate wrist shot — it’s not going to go unnoticed.
“He’s super predictable,” Miller said of his 28-year-old linemate. “It’s when you start playing the other way that you start hoping a lot and that’s not good. You know the puck is getting in deep and (Toffoli) is going to be in the right spot.
“That’s easy to play with. And he’s bigger than people realize. He’s a solid dude and good around the net.”
What’s that worth? Toffoli’s expiring cap hit is $4.6 million and Miller’s deal is a good reference point. The club’s leading scorer is 27.
He has three more seasons at an annual $5.25-million cap hit that’s the best NHL bargain. No trade acquisition in the last year has matched his career-high 72 points (27-45) in 69 games.
Toffoli has had three 20-goal seasons and a 30-goal campaign, so the bump on his expiring deal is about banking on long-term consistency and game-breaking potential. That’s Miller territory, so why not trade security for salary and offer Toffoli what Miller has in place?
CHRIS TANEV (UFA)
The long-serving defenceman sounds like a realtor.
It’s about location for Tanev, but it’s also about not being blinded by the comfort factor after earning UFA status. Tanev was fourth among all NHL players in blocked shots this season and suffered a medial collateral ligament sprain March 10.
At age 30 and on an expiring $4.6-million cap hit, Tanev could have options in the marketplace to push for cash and security. What works for him here is a complimentary mentorship fit in a pairing with Hughes and being regarded as one who leads by example.
“I want to stay in Vancouver — I love it here and it’s sort of my new
home,” said the Toronto native. “Of course, I’d like to sign a long-term deal because I’ve played quite a while (10 years) and have earned that right, but who knows?
“I would like to sign here for a few years.”
Keeping Tanev would mean moving more than a depth piece. And with Alex Edler’s contract expiring after next season, the Canucks have to cast an eye to getting younger and not older. Still, it’s the intangibles that Tanev brings that are hard to measure in salary comparables.
“He’s a guy you can win with and I’m going to try to do what I can to keep him around,” said Benning.
QUESTION MARKS
The Canucks like the versatility of UFA winger Josh Leivo, 27, but he was limited to 19 points (7-12) in 36 games because of a fractured knee cap in December. The arrival of Miller and Toffoli, improvement in Virtanen, and the hope that Micheal Ferland is over concussion concerns has clogged the wings. But Leivo’s expiring cap hit is just $1.5 million.
Virtanen, 23, had a career 36-point season (18-18), but will the Canucks pay for potential, or do they think he’s just a third-line winger who isn’t worth much of a bump from his expiring $1.25-million cap hit? If that’s the case, arbitration might be his route.