NOT-SO-DISTANT WORRIES AS BUSINESSES OPEN UP AGAIN

As Premier John Horgan prepared to launch the third phase of Restart B.C. this week, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry delivered a cautionary update on the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Our model suggests that contact rates are roughly 65 per cent of normal, which is roughly the threshold for a rebound in new cases,” read the most telling slide in the PowerPoint presentation she delivered Tuesday.

It was Henry herself who first flagged contact rates, expressed as a percentage of pre-pandemic levels, as the way to measure B.C.’s success at self-isolation and physical distancing.

Back on May 4, her modelling presentation put the province at a reassuring 30 per cent of the pre-pandemic level of contacts. She reckoned that B.C. could safely double the level to about 60 per cent.

“We might have increased numbers of cases, and some hospitalizations in the coming weeks,” said. Henry. “But they would be manageable.”

In mid-May, the province did move to the second phase of Restart B.C., relaxing some restrictions and setting the stage for a gradual reopening of the economy. On June 4, Henry weighed in with an update that again emphasized the 60 per cent contact rate as the sweet spot between too much and too little distancing.

“We want to stay somewhere around 50 to 60 per cent,” she told reporters. “We know if we do that, we are likely to have low numbers of cases over time and not to have any exponential growth in our trajectory here in B.C. ...

Given the importance that the provincial health officer attached to the number, it was news Tuesday when the modelling showed the province had crossed the 60 per cent threshold.

She hedged the numbers slightly when talking to reporters following a technical briefing on the modelling data.

“We are somewhere between 60 and 65 per cent of normal,” she said. “It could be a little bit more, it could be a little bit less.”

Still, there was no denying that the modelling suggested that B.C. had reached the upper limit of a safe rate of contacts.

“This is my nervous level,” she admitted. “We want to stay about right where we are. Sixty-five per cent is where we need to be.”

But she also noted that despite the recent increase in contacts, there has so far been no rebound in the outbreak. B.C. has had only a small number of new cases, few deaths and only a handful of patients in hospital.

So B.C. was ready to move to Phase 3?

“Yes, I do think we’re in the place where we can move to supporting the safe opening of other parts of our economy, including travel, particularly people travelling within B.C.”

Carefully of course: “We’ll be watching to make sure that we’re not having (cases) pop up in the community that are not linked. … If we did start to see increases in hospitalization and ICU cases, those are warning signs to us. We would need to modify what we’re doing.”

Some new cases are inevitable. But where they do appear, prompt contact tracing is critically important.

“We need to find 75 per cent of contacts within one to three days to be able to effectively control the epidemic,” said Henry.

Turning philosophical, she noted that B.C. was in a strange place, all in all.

“Until we have the ability to protect the population from this virus, either through an effective treatment or a vaccine, we have to find a balance that’s going to keep people from getting sick in large numbers.”

But for the sake of everything from the economy and employment, to society and individual lives, there can be no going back to the earlier restrictions.

“Obviously, I’ve been consumed with this, as many of us have, for many months,” she reflected. “We’re at a point where we want things to go back to normal. We don’t want to have to deal with this anymore.”

But: “We can’t let up. We have to continue to take these measures, to do the right thing in the coming months.”

Yes, months: “It’s going to be months. It’s going to be likely into next year.”

Classic Henry: Yes, we can move forward, but with caution and not kid ourselves that we are putting the virus behind us.

Wednesday she was back on the public platform, providing backup to Horgan as he made it official that B.C. was moving to Phase 3.

Horgan was his usual upbeat self, touting the prospects for opening up the film and television industry (“Hollywood North is looking pretty good on the health front”) and urging British Columbians to start making vacation bookings because hotels, resorts and campgrounds are filling up. “I had difficulty trying to get a place,” he said.

But Henry was there to inject a note of caution: “We have seen all around us what can happen if we’re not careful.”

No arguing with that, nor did the premier try. “This is a good day for British Columbia as we go together into Phase 3,” he said near the end of the media conference, before segueing to the other half of the day’s message.

“We need to remember we are not leaving COVID-19 behind. It is here in every corner of B.C. and we need to behave accordingly,” he closed, with an echo of Henry.

For the sake of everything ... there can be no going back to the earlier restrictions.